Craig G. (Fairfield, California)

Hey KC, when picking a defense for fantasy, what statistics or numbers do you look at most?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

Hello! Apologies I'm a couple of minutes late. I got lost in the maze that is the Bristol campus. When looking at a D, I look at the bad decision metric in my system. For overall metrics, I'd look at sacks and yards allowed.

Chris (Philly)

Do you see Favre being able to remain in the "game manager" mode that he has been in this season? Or is it going to be like last season, and once the honeymoon is over he goes back to his gunslining ways?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

I see game manager in his future. His vertical YPA prior to Monday night was very poor and I think he only has a few of those air it out games left in his arm.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ: Im not drinking the Denver Koolaid. They have beaten Cleveland, Oakland, Cinci (on a miracle play), and an underachieving and overrated Dallas team (who are 4th in total O though). I will be shocked...yes, shocked, if NE doesnt blow Denver out of the water. Thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

This may sound odd but I think it may boil down to Andre Goodman. Goodman is giving up just over 13 YPA so far this year. Teams have been targeting Bailey much more frequently but that is going to change and if Goodman can't hold up, Denver's D will start to falter.

Eric (San Diego)

As far as you can tell, is the Packers D really as bad as they seem? Or is is somewhat a product of the weak O-line causing the other team a ton of TOP?

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

They did a great job in forced bad decision percentage last year and they were doing a really good job of that this year until late. I just don't think they thought Favre could beat them through the air and paid the price because of it.

Cameron (San Diego)

Hey KC, I need your advice. I really would like to upgrade my QB which is Matt Ryan. I offered Ryan and Steve Smith(Giants) for Rivers and Jennings. Am I really not gaining anything here? I do expect Jennings to come along and finish with better stats then Smith

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

That sounds like a fair trade to me as long as Smith keeps his level of play up. I'll bet the other owner doubts Smith's long-term viability and that's why he didn't bite on the trade offer.

Bobby (Boston)

Hey KC, thanks for the great picks the past two weeks. for week 5 which team would you recommend for my survivor league? Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Tampa Bay), Pittsburgh Steelers (at Detroit) or Vikings (at Rams)

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

Glad I could help! I'd say the Vikes but I'm a bit leery of if Favre will have an off game after the emotional MNF contest. I'd go Pittsburgh.

Steven (CO)

With F. Taylor going down who do you think the patriots turn to more, Maroney, Faulk or Morris?

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

Belichick has often said that the RB position is one that health can impact more than any other. That means he'll go with whoever is the healthiest and since he won't tell us the answer to that question, it's really tough. I'd bet Maroney but that's merely an educated guess.

Elvis Dumervill (Denver, CO)

Tell Shane in LA to look out, because I'm coming to sack him!

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

Musically I'm more of a Beatles fan than an Elvis fan but football-wise, I've been the leader of the Elvis Dumervil bandwagon for a while now. He's getting one-on-one and coverage sacks, so it's a matter of technique and effort. He's the NFL Defensive Player of the Year at the moment.

Richard (NY)

What do you make of Massoquoi? Could he be a reliable target at least in a rotation wiht ohter fantasy WRs like Burleson, Garcon, and Bennett?

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

He had eight vertical targets this past week, and that is a ton of deep passes. He also did quite well on them (check out today's Insider feature for more details), so he's definitely someone I'd pick up.

Corey (D.C)

I have had Byralon on my fantasy team since last year for the sole purpose of hoping he gets traded out of Cleveland. How well do you think he will do immediately, then over long term?

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

Braylon has tougher CB matchups than Cotchery, so I'd say he may have it a bit tough out of the gate. I wouldn't give up on him but it would not shock me to see him struggle for a bit.

KingKev (TX)

KC, I am interested in what you think of Raiders WR Louis Murphy. He seems to have ideal size and speed, but with Russell under center its hard to tell what his potential is.

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

I agree on the Russell bit but Murphy is also having issues running routes. He's not running them as crisp as he should and that is part of why he is out of synch with Russell.

John (Boston)

Hi KC - what do think about the Patriots running back situation? With Taylor hurt and Maroney looking like a possible bust, can Sammy Morris get the job done? I love his toughness and hands but I dont know if he is explosive enough. Thanks

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

Morris posted a solid number in the all-POA block win YPA rate last year, so he'll be serviceable. Having said that, his rate wasn't that high so I concur on the lack of explosiveness.

Chris (Greeley)

At my third receiver spot do you think that I should start Braylon Edwards, or Mohamed Massaquoi for my fantasy team?

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

Tough call but I would not be shocked at all to see Massoquoi outperform Edwards for the next few weeks. For this particular Sunday, however, I'd go with Edwards if only because my gut says the Jets will throw to him a lot just to show they got good value in the trade.

BSB (Philly)

KC, Why on earth didn't the Cowboys spread out the Broncos and throw at Dawkins? I love him but get the guy in coverage geesh.

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

Too true, Broad Street. I also question why they threw at Champ 13 times. Champ struggled last year but his YPA this year is below 5. No way they should have thrown at him that much.

Greg (Cleveland, OH)

KC, start three: Massaquoi, B. Edwards, Coffee, Mason. Also, in a keeper, would you rather have LT or Moreno? Thanks!

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

Mason is a great start this week. I'd also go with Coffee and the Massoquoi/Edwards quandary can be found in the previous post. Give me Moreno in a keeper league. Health is an issue for both but Moreno has age on his side.

kw (san francisco)

how come marvin harrison hasnt been picked any team?did he fall off that much ? is he that bad

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

My understanding is that it has something to do with his contract demands. He wants more than what teams are willing to offer him.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ: You dont need metrics to see Russell is a bust; should the Raiders see if Rosenfels or T-Jax is available for trade? Im sure the Vikes would be willing trade partners, since the whole league knows the Raiders overdraft, overpay, and over-everything for players!

KC Joyner

  (4:28 PM)

Rosenfels would be a great addition for the Raiders. His vertical numbers over the years have been out of this world. Not sure who they could offer the Vikes (Miller?), but it would be an upgrade over Russell given how poorly he has played.

Fred Bennet (Houston, TX)

Am I the most recent product of the Football Scientist curse? Who's next?

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

The Football Scientist Curse. Is this the online version of the SI Curse?

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Did you expect to get this many questions about Massaquoi so early in his career?

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

Well, I mentioned him in today's Insider article, and the material there often drives questions. I'm just surprised of the volume of MM questions.

Jake (VA Beach)

I know it's early, but do you see anything in Jennings, Roddy or Boldin (metrics or other) that would have them returning to '08 form?

KC Joyner

  (4:31 PM)

I just looked at Boldin's metrics and he is sitting at a very poor 6.8 YPA this year. That is well off of his usual YPA pace and a reason why the Cards O is off of its game.

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

I just thought of the next victim of the TFS curse - Steve Slaton. If his last Sunday performance continues, maybe I'll have to take that back but up until then he had underperformed below what I figured he would.

Phil (NJ)

Do you still feel that Mendenhall is a tentative runner? Was last week a fluke game for him or can he be expected to perform around that level for the rest of the season?

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

He's tentative until he has a motivation to hit that line (i.e. losing his job if he didn't). All that means is Tomlin will have to push him every week. It's a good short-term solution but I'll guarantee Pittsburgh will be looking for something else long-term if RM doesn't start motivating himself a bit more.

Len (Charlotte)

I am in a salary cap league. If I drop Roy Williams I can pick up Britt, Massaquoi, A. Gonzalez and S, Rice. Do you expect Williams to ever come around be a true no 1 or is it time to cut bait?

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

I'd trade Williams if at all possible but if you can't do that, I'd probably go for Gonzalez (just trust the Indy offense more than I do any of those others).

Zach (New York, NY)

Could you curse someone besides Texans please? How about Peyton Manning?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

You know, I somehow knew you'd spot that trend! OK, maybe I'll do another one and say Ted Ginn. His YPA was quite good last year but he's taken two huge steps back this year.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ: On the other side of the Cards, what is going on with their Defense? On paper, they should be very good, but in reality they are horrible, constantly not playing disciplined football and getting caught out of position.

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

What is surprising to me is the play of their CBs. I don't have the numbers right in front of me but I know DRC had at least one bad game and McFadden has been hot/cold at times. They also miss Clancy Pendergast. He had a lot of weaknesses as DC but he was very good at forcing opposing QBs to make bad decisions.

Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)

Who's been the biggest fantasy disappointment so far? Steve Slaton, Matt Cassel, or Wes Welker? I have all of them on my fantasy team plus Marshawn Lynch...

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

I'd say Slaton except that this past Sunday could be a harbinger. Welker's been hurt so it's hard to throw him under the bus. Cassel should never have been as highly rated as he was, but out of the three I'd say he's the biggest bust.

Josh (LA)

KC! You've always said that Champ Bailey's 2006 was the best for a cornerback in history. With the way Champ has started, do you think he can replicate it? Or with how well Darrelle Revis is playing, can he hope for those kind of metrics?

KC Joyner

  (4:39 PM)

Four weeks is really early to make that call but Champ is on pace to replicate his 2006 totals. Revis has good numbers but if memory serves me correct they aren't quite as good as Champ's.

Reasonable (Miami)

For those not in the know, what is The Curse??? FYI Ted Ginn was already cursed with concrete hands and a somewhat pliable spine made of non-existence.

KC Joyner

  (4:40 PM)

The Curse was something mentioned earlier in the chat. It's given when an unknown player's metrics are really good but his play falls off the next year.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

I took what I felt was a calculated risk and dropped the Steelers D while picking up the Saints D this week (already have the Vikes D too). I figured with four games against Carolina and Tampa, I stand to get some good match ups and the Steeler D really hasn't done much. Good idea or not so much?

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

I've got Pitt on all but one of my fantasy teams and I'm about ready to drop them. NO has great CBs and they are taking to Gregg Williams' system quite well. I like the idea of playing them, at least for the next little bit until they get tired of Williams motivational tactics.

Brad (NM)

KC, I know you're not a Trent Edwards fan but his first two weeks he looked solid and like he would quiet his ciritics up, but then the past two weeks he's been horrid. Is this a play calling issue?..Inability to read defenses? Or just true colors shining through?

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

In my estimation, it's as much on the offense as a whole as it is on him. Owens is playing at around his 2008 level (which is to say an average WR) and they aren't finding a way to get the ball to Evans deep. Part of me thinks that if Edwards adopted just a bit of Losman's old philosophy of chuck it up to Evans 2-3 times a game just on the chance that he'll take it to the house, their passing game would open up a ton.

Zach (New York, NY)

Tell Reasonable in Miami that the curse also has a stronger effect on Texans.

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

Yeah, it does seem to hit that city like a hurricane.

Jake (VA Beach)

Interesting question (I think): how do pass interference calls work into your metrics of analyzing DBs (if at all)?

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

Very good question. I count pass interference and all pass-in-air penalties into the metrics. I figure if the yards were gained for or against the player, it should count into his overall critique.

Jenna (KC's House)

Hi KC. I need you right now. I need to know what you think of Devin Hester as a WR in my dynasty league. Would you trade Roy Williams for him?

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

Very funny. Mrs. Scientist would not take kindly to that, believe me. Regarding Hester for Williams, I'd go for it. It's a bit of a risky move but Hester is starting to show some upside that wasn't evident before (at least not evident as a WR).

Guz (Florida)

Who you like out of these WR's?Wes Welker, Hines ward or Mario Manningham...I only need one because my other WR is Steve Smith (Giants) and i'm not benching him cause he is on fire right now.

KC Joyner

  (4:47 PM)

I hate to tell you to play two WRs from the same team but the way the Giants O is playing right now, it's probably worth the risk.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Remember not so long ago when there were only a handful of good TEs in the NFL? Right now who do you see moving up the ranks to be among the elite TEs in the NFL?

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

Vernon Davis is starting to step his receiving play up. I'm not quite ready to say he's in elite class but he's getting closer to that ranking every week.

SprungOnSports (Long Island)

There are still some people who still don't believe in the 49ers, do you think they'll get a big win over Atlanta?

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

Really tough call. I can say that I like their chances because Nate Clements is finally playing up to his talent level and could take Roddy White out of the game because of it.

Marc (Charlotte)

What if Eli doesn't play though?

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

I'd still take a chance on one of them (probably Smith because he's the better possession receiver) but not both.

TC (DC)

KC, I remember you saying in August that if Ronnie Brown slipped past fifth in a fantasy draft, immediately snatch him. That seemed a little crazy then and the first couple weeks of the season but not so much in recent weeks. How much was that discounting Ricky Williams, how much was Ronnie's talent, and what's his outlook with Henne at QB?

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

It was as much the good grades for the Miami O line as anything. They did quite well in 2008 before Smiley got injured.

Jeff Feagles (Coffin Corner)

12 team, No PPR league. Do any of these RBs belong on a roster - Jamal Lewis, LenDale White, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Justin Fargas, Laurence Maroney?

KC Joyner

  (4:52 PM)

I'd stash Felix Jones on a roster in the hopes that he'll get and stay healthy this year. When he's on, he is one of the most dominant RBs in all-POA win YPA.

Greg (Cleveland, OH)

KC, why should we believe so much in NO defense? They always get to play with ears pinned back (haven't trailed and required a stop yet) and faced, in order: rookie QB first start, third year QB first start, third year QB w/o offensive coordinator, rookie QB fourth start. Not exactly Murderer's Row.

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

I'm sold on them because of the quality of their CBs. They have a better set of top four CBs than anyone in the league. Sure, they have played favorable opponents but I believe they are capable of doing well against anyone. Well, I hate to cut this short but I do have to hit the road just a bit early today. Don't forget that you can follow my works on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all next week!