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Sunday, November 14, 2004
Updated: November 16, 3:31 PM ET
Can Bowden sell city on Expos?

By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com

Nov. 14

When Jim Bowden awoke Saturday morning, there were already 41 messages on his cell phone. "How quickly I forgot," the interim general manager of the Washington-based Expos says, "how crazy this job really is."

Bowden doesn't know how long he will have this job or to what end, only that Bob DuPuy told him "do whatever's necessary" to get the team formerly known as the Expos back toward the road to respectability. "We've started selling tickets," says Bowden, "so I want to try to create some excitement and get people interested. It's a great city, a great opportunity, and I'll give the job everything I have."

Monday, Bowden sets up his office at the spring training complex in Melbourne, where cows roam behind the center-field fence. At different times this week, manager Frank Robinson, assistant GM Tony Siegel and scouting director Dana Brown will fly to Florida to discuss personnel moves with Bowden. "I've already made offers to free agents," he says. "And I've discussed a number of trades. We are in business, and I'm going to try to do everything possible to get this team moving in the right direction, both in the short and long terms."

Bowden is looking for a shortstop, third baseman, right-field bat and veteran (180 to 200 innings) starting pitcher. If possible, he'd like to hold onto catcher Brian Schneider (who's sought by Boston, among many other teams, after having the majors' best percentage of runners thrown out), first baseman Nick Johnson, center fielder Brad Wilkerson and relievers Chad Cordero and Luis Ayala. Bowden tried to acquire Jose Guillen, whose career he rescued in Cincinnati, but the Angels insisted on getting Cordero back in return. Guillen may end up in Florida in a three-way trade that would send Randy Johnson to Anaheim, or he'll be moved to Kansas City.

The free agents on his list include third basemen Corey Koskie and Vinny Castilla and shortstop Cristian Guzman, as well as several pitchers. Philadelphia came asking for Endy Chavez, several teams have asked for rookie outfielder Ryan Church, including Tampa Bay, which has several veterans it's trying to move, Aubrey Huff and Jose Cruz Jr. among them.

"I think we can have a pretty solid bullpen with Ayala, Cordero and (Gary) Majewski," says Bowden. "We have some pretty good young starters, and (left-hander) Mike Hinckley (11-4 between Class A Brevard and Double-A Harrisburg) is a stud, someone I don't think I'd be afraid to send to the big leagues this season."

So, from now until the winter meetings in December, Bowden will be holed up in Melbourne, trying to find ways to make baseball's refugees interesting to the people of Washington.

Only the bad and the ugly (contracts)
  • Sammy Sosa. Preston Wilson. Kevin Brown. Jason Giambi. Kenny Lofton. Cliff Floyd. Mike Piazza. Tom Glavine. Byung-Hyun Kim. Ryan Klesko. Jason Kendall. Andruw Jones. Shawn Green. Darren Dreifort. Arthur Rhodes. Jose Vidro. Pat Burrell. Mike Lieberthal. Charles Johnson. Chan Ho Park. Matt Lawton. Paul Konerko. Eric Hinske. Edgardo Alfonzo. Ray Durham. Juan Encarnacion. Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Jay Payton. Jeff Bagwell. Jose Guillen. Tim Salmon. Bret Boone. Joe Mays. Kazuo Matsui ...

    ... And on and on it runs, the list of players teams would love to unload to rid themselves of the salaries. They are, pure and simple, bad contracts, some too long, some too much money. And while agents posture for five-year deals for mid-30s players or 10 years for icons, there is one fact of life every general manager has to accept: Kevin Malone went from the Sheriff of L.A. County to a fundraiser for a small Christian college because he doled out 18 years' worth of contracts to Brown, Green and Dreifort.

    It appears that Sosa may be willing to pare down the $18 million he is owed for 2006 if he is traded, which would open the door for him to be traded to the Mets and reunited with Omar Minaya. Sosa's agent, Adam Katz, warns that he does not want Sosa to play for three different teams in three years, which would be the case if he were to go to Colorado for Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson. As Tracy Ringolsby pointed out, it is a cash wash, but while Sosa might hit 70 homers in Coors Lite, Katz knows that the Rockies would either trade him in July or let him walk at the end of the season.

    The lengths of deals trouble clubs because history doesn't lie. Scott Boras is asking for five years and $65 million for Jason Varitek, and the Red Sox won't give it to him even though Varitek is the soul of the team. "Guaranteeing a catcher $11 million at the age of 37 (Varitek's fourth year in this deal) is suicide, probably to the GM," says one National League GM. Boras told the Red Sox he has a five-year offer in hand, but then he told the Phillies and Braves that Kevin Millwood and Greg Maddux had multi-year offers in 2003 and 2002, respectively, and neither did, requiring them to go to arbitration.

    Presently, the Red Sox are trying to sign Pedro Martinez and Carl Pavano, who says that he would very much like to pitch with Curt Schilling. "I have a past with Curt (going back to Schilling's days in New Britain, Conn., when Pavano was a teenager in Southington)," says Pavano. "And I would like to learn from him." Boston has some interest in Troy Glaus, and could make it work if they cleared $8 million by trading Kevin Millar and Doug Mientkiewicz, but that is a 10 percent shot and way down the road.

    Because of the aggressive nature of agents like Boras and the fact that teams want to see what players require as free agents, don't expect much to happen until after Dec. 7, when clubs can offer their free agents arbitration. "I think this is going to drag out until January and even February," Giants GM Brian Sabean says. "There will be more players signed after the first of the year than before," says another GM. "There will be another 40 non-tendered players on the market. And the shortstop market may take five or six weeks to sort itself out."

    There were four teams that reached the postseason in both 2003 and 2004: the Yankees, Twins, Red Sox and Braves. The Yankees had nine players on both postseason rosters, the Braves nine, the Twins 14, the Red Sox 16.

    "That turnover," says one general manager, "is what successful teams do."

    "Teams that put themselves in a position to win every year," said another GM, "don't fall in love with the past."

    The Dodgers' postseason roster had eight players who weren't with them (DL'd players don't count) on Opening Day, the Astros six, Twins and Angels five, Red Sox, Braves and Yankees four, and the Cardinals two.

    "The playoffs aren't in January," Oakland GM Billy Beane says. "You leave flexibility so that the first two months of the season are spent finding out what you have, the next two months are spent trying to get what you need, and the last two months you go for it."

    In case you were wondering
    Value Over Replacement Player for free agent starters
    (Source: Baseball Prospectus)
    Pavano			62.4
    Clemens			61.3
    Radke			60.1
    Pedro Martinez		51.2
    Odalis Perez		49.7
    Al Leiter		46.2
    Jaret Wright		40.3
    David Wells		40.3
    Clement			36.9
    Russ Ortiz		33.1
    Orlando Hernandez	27.6
    Lieber			27.7
    Ramon Ortiz		24.6
    Derek Lowe	        -11.6
    

  • If you haven't yet bought the 2005 Bill James Handbook, here are a few fascinating items. The first is his 2005 projections:

    FREE AGENT 2005 PROJECTIONS

    BA HR OPS Beltre .287 34 .866 Beltran .285 31 .891 Cabrera .271 12 .729 Delgado .281 35 .955 Drew .291 26 .926 Garciaparra .313 20 .880 Glaus .254 39 .884 Koskie .270 20 .823 M. Ordonez .302 24 .902 Renteria .294 11 .765 Varitek .266 17 .792 Sexson .272 39 .894

    YOUNG PLAYER 2005 PROJECTIONS Kubel, Minn.* .317 17 .909 MacPherson, Ana .293 37 .945 Mauer, Minn .314 16 .867 Pickering, KC .277 34 .967 Wright, Mets .309 27 .929 Swisher, Oak .234 24 .792 Bay, Pitt .289 37 .923 Upton, TB .294 18 .842 Youkilis, Bos .271 6 .790 Morneau, Minn .280 32 .878 *Projection made before season-ending injury

    PLAYERS PROJECTED TO EXCEED 1.000 OPS Bonds .316 36 1.195 Pujols .343 43 1.092 Helton .340 33 1.062 Ramirez .320 39 1.030 Guerrero .330 37 1.000

    Firing up the projector
    And you don't think home runs are devalued? There were 16 players with 500 homers -- all Hall of Famers -- before 1998. In James' career projections, there are 19 current players who project to 500 or more home runs:

    Jeff Bagwell (561), Adrian Beltre (555), Barry Bonds (918), Eric Chavez (509), Carlos Delgado (556), Adam Dunn (682), Jim Edmonds (508), Juan Gonzalez (534), Ken Griffey Jr., (620), Vladimir Guerrero (659), Todd Helton (530), Chipper Jones (510), Rafael Palmeiro (616), Alex Rodriguez (779), Scott Rolen (503), Gary Sheffield (569), Sammy Sosa (756), Frank Thomas (538) and Jim Thome (644).

    Favorite numbers from 2004
  • Cheap wins: Kenny Rogers, 11; Jeff Suppan, Eric Milton and Esteban Loaiza, 7.
  • Tough Losses: Ben Sheets, 11; Randy Johnson, 10; Jeff Weaver, 8; Oliver Perez and Freddy Garcia, 7.
  • AL Runs Created per 9 innings: Mark Teixeira and David Ortiz, 8.0; Melvin Mora, Travis Hafner and Manny Ramirez, 7.9.
  • Fastest Average Fastball: Rich Harden, 94.3; Roy Oswalt, 94.0; C.C. Sabathia, 93.8; Randy Johnson, 93.6; Kelvim Escobar and Jason Schmidt, 93.5; Ben Sheets and Jeremy Bonderman, 93.3.
  • Most pitches thrown 100 mph: Kyle Farnsworth, 30; Billy Wagner and Jesus Colome, 8.
  • Most pitches thrown over 95 mph: Harden 746; Oswalt 733; A.J. Burnett, 714; Josh Beckett 519; Carlos Zzmbrano, 512; Sabathia, 509.
  • Percentage of pitches in the strike zone: Curt Schilling, 61.9; David Wells, 60.4; Jon Lieber, 59.8; Sheets, 59.6; Brad Radke, 59.6; Mike Mussina, 59.3; Adam Eaton, 59.2; Tim Wakefield, 58.1.
  • Quality starts: Johnson, 26; Johan Santana and Jeff Weaver, 25; Brad Radke, Sheets and Doug Davis, 23.

    Austin's power available
    The Reds are taking offers on Austin Kearns, with a young future top-of-the-rotation starter their primary need ... Texas will move Alfonso Soriano, as expected ... The Mets are offering Al Leiter $4 million in addition to his $2 million buyout once they don't pick up the $10 million option for 2005 ... The Cardinals still believe they can re-sign Edgar Renteria, but he will have to backload the deal. ... The first two teams to step up to Oakland seeking one of the Big Three are the Braves (offering second baseman Marcus Giles and left-handed pitcher Dan Meyer) and the Orioles (offering pitchers Erik Bedard and John Maine). A's GM Billy Beane will wait and take in offers from other teams. Beane is also talking to the Pirates about a deal for Jason Kendall, which would involve Arthur Rhodes and Mark Redman. If the A's are able to acquire Kendall, Beane could then move him at some point, with catchers Landon Powell, John Baker and Jeremy Brown all currently minor leaguers in Oakland's system.