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» NFC Needs Revisited: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/24) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Biggest needs revisited.

Atlanta Falcons

After making their one splurge into free agency to get Dunta Robinson and re-signing veteran Brian Williams, the Falcons have done a nice job of addressing a cornerback position that once was a big area of need. With those moves, the Falcons have whittled down their significant needs considerably.

The most glaring need is at defensive end and that almost certainly will be addressed early in the draft. John Abraham had a quiet year as a pass-rusher last season and age could be catching up to him. Nobody else stepped forward as a pass-rusher and the Falcons realize they need to get more pressure on quarterbacks. General manager Thomas Dimitroff believes in basing his drafts on need and getting a pass-rusher is critical.

The only other area that can be considered a high need is outside linebacker, but that’s not as dramatic as defensive end. The Falcons have Mike Peterson and Stephen Nicholas as their starting outside linebackers. Peterson is getting older, but still played at a high level last year. Nicholas was solid in his first year as a starter, but the Falcons could consider an upgrade.

Carolina Panthers

Their needs have grown since the start of free agency. The purge of veteran players has left the Panthers with needs in a lot of places. Without a first-round draft pick, the Panthers probably won’t be able to fill all their needs in the draft.

The defensive line, once the cornerstone of a John Fox team, has been gutted. The Panthers have high hopes for Everette Brown and Charles Johnson, but still could look for another defensive end to replace Julius Peppers.

The more glaring need might be at defensive tackle, where starters Damione Lewis and Maake Kemoeatu were released. The Panthers have nothing but projects and journeymen at defensive tackle. Unless they suddenly get more active in free agency, they almost have to find one starting defensive tackle in the draft.

New Orleans Saints

They are the champions and, as a result, won’t draft until the final pick of the first round. The new free-agency rules prevent the Saints from doing much in free agency. Their roster is in good shape, but they still have some needs.

The defensive line is the most prominent need. Starting end Charles Grant was released after the season, and there is a possibility tackle/end Anthony Hargrove could be lost as a restricted free agent. The Saints would like to get a defensive end who can generate more of a pass rush than Grant, and they’d also like to find a solid starter to pair with defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis.

But the Saints can’t totally lock in on the defensive line with their first pick because they’ve also got a need at outside linebacker. With Scott Fujita leaving as a free agent, the Saints have some in-house candidates, but there’s no clear-cut replacement. Picking at the end of the first round leaves the Saints at the mercy of the teams in front of them, but it seems likely they’ll take the best available defensive lineman or outside linebacker.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are needs just about everywhere, and the Bucs are counting heavily on this draft to be a big part of their building process. They have 10 overall picks and five in the first 99. They’ve got the third overall pick in the first round and it seems almost certain they’ll take defensive tackles Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh, if either is available.

After that, they’ve got plenty of other directions they could go. They could take several wide receivers because there isn’t a quality starter currently on the roster. Defensive end also is an area of need because there is no clear starter opposite Stylez G. White.

» NFC Big Question: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Why has the NFC South been so quiet in free agency?

The NFC South has been a virtual nonfactor in free agency. Aside from Atlanta adding cornerback Dunta Robinson, there hasn’t been another signing of a true unrestricted free agent in the division.

Don’t look for that to change dramatically. First off there’s not much left in free agency. Even if there were, that wouldn’t change things. The NFC South’s silence is largely by design.

It may make for a boring time for fans, but the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers all like to say they’re committed to building through the draft. Now, we’re seeing them back it up.

The Bucs, 3-13 last year, have needs all over the place. But they’re not known for being big spenders and they pretty much have been sitting out of free agency. They keep pointing to the 10 draft picks they have accumulated and saying that’s how they’re going to build their team. Like it or not, that’s really what they’re doing.

Atlanta has become pretty transparent since general manager Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith took over. They’ll always tell you they believe in building through the draft and that’s what they’ve done. They’re good for one or two big moves in an offseason. In the past, that’s been signing Michael Turner and Mike Peterson and trading for Tony Gonzalez. Robinson was this year’s big splurge and there’s not likely to be another. The Falcons might plug a hole or two with some mid-level or low-level free agents, but they basically started turning their attention to the draft the minute Robinson signed his contract.

Carolina long has followed the philosophy of building through the draft, which is fine in most years. But the Panthers are full of needs and currently without a first-round pick. They’ve been known to step away from their plan from time to time. One year, they spent a fortune on cornerback Ken Lucas and offensive lineman Mike Wahle. Those guys contributed, but their huge salaries caused big problems in the locker room and neither stayed long. That was a painful lesson for the front office, but it’s only part of the reason the Panthers are so quiet this year. Perhaps more than any other owner, Carolina’s Jerry Richardson is worried about the labor uncertainty. He seems to have given his football people orders to trim salaries and it sure doesn’t look like he’s given them permission to re-invest that money.

Then, there is the exceptional case of the Saints. They’ve been the division’s most aggressive team in free agency in recent years. But their hands are tied because of their Super Bowl victory. In this uncapped year, the final eight teams from last year are playing by a set of rules in which their ability to sign free agents is limited. The Saints can only sign an unrestricted free agent if they lose one. That eliminates a lot of possibilities, but the Saints aren’t sitting still. They’ve pursued some guys who have been cut by other teams, but that hasn’t resulted in much. The good news is the Saints are a team without many holes and they can use the draft to fill their needs.

If you have ever been to an Atlanta Falcons practice, you know that team owner Arthur Blank has a strong presence.

He's out there on the sideline, mostly observing, but sometimes chatting with his players. It all looks very casual, but it was out there on the practice field a few years back that the seeds were planted for a very big business deal.

"I used to make little comments to Mr. Blank and [team president and former general manager] Rich McKay about how I wanted to someday be an owner," former Atlanta running back Warrick Dunn said.

What might have seemed like a joke at the time wasn't. Dunn was very serious about his desire to own an NFL team and Blank was listening. Now, it has all happened.

Dunn recently completed a deal to become a limited partner with Blank. He'll join six other limited partners and Blank and help run the Falcons. He'll also serve on the Atlanta Falcons Board of Advisors, which includes heavy hitters like Hank Aaron and Ambassador Andrew Young.

It might sound like a nice token gesture for one of the best players in franchise history and a guy who has been known for his charitable and community work throughout his career. But it's much more than that.

Dunn is taking his new role very seriously. If you know anything about Dunn, that's no surprise. He's very serious about anything he does.

"The deal really just became official, but I've already been studying up," Dunn said. "We've got a meeting of the partners later this month and that will be my first real test and I'm trying to get ready for it. But I really feel like I'm blind in a sense because I don't really know the business end."

That may be true, but it's going to change quickly. Keep in mind, Dunn spent his entire playing career with the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers constantly followed by the question, "Can he do it every down?" because he was 5-foot-9 and about 185 pounds.

Three Pro Bowls and almost 11,000 rushing yards later, Dunn had emphatically answered that question by the time he stopped playing after the 2008 season. Now comes the next question: Can he succeed as an owner?

Don't be against it. The terms of Dunn's investment in the Falcons haven't been revealed, and Blank controls 90 percent of the team. But Dunn made a lot of money as a player and was known by teammates for being a bit frugal.


(Read full post)

» NFC Recent History: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/24) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today's topic: Recent history.

Atlanta Falcons

In general manager Thomas Dimitroff’s first draft in 2008, the Falcons went almost exclusively with offense, mainly because they wanted to build around quarterback Matt Ryan and left tackle Sam Baker. That draft was a huge success and it helped the Falcons build a solid offensive core. Last year, Dimitroff switched over almost entirely to defense. The jury is still out on that class because defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore missed almost all of their rookie seasons with injuries. But both will be back and will fill defensive needs. The products of the last two drafts mean the Falcons are now in a situation in which they can go any way they want. Dimitroff doesn’t mess around and talk about “the best player available." He admits the Falcons draft on need. They’ve narrowed their needs this year. Although defensive end and linebacker currently top that list, the Falcons no longer need to spend the whole draft on one side of the ball.

Carolina Panthers

In recent years, the Panthers have been very daring in the draft. Two years ago, they traded back up into the first round to get tackle Jeff Otah, after already landing running back Jonathan Stewart. That cost them a 2009 first-round pick, but they still traded up in last year’s second round to get defensive end Everette Brown. That cost them this year’s first-round pick and they won’t be picking until the second round -- at least as of now. The last couple of years have shown general manager Marty Hurney is willing to take big chances. After an offseason purge of veterans, the Panthers suddenly have a lot of needs all over the place. Hurney’s demonstrated a recent willingness to trade up and that certainly could come in handy this year. But the problem is the Panthers don’t have a lot of currency to move up.

New Orleans Saints

Mickey Loomis is another general manager who doesn’t try to make you believe he’s only looking for the best player available. Recent history has shown Loomis makes sure he gets what his team needs, even when it’s not always the most popular pick. Take last year’s trade up in the fifth round to get punter Thomas Morstead. Fans griped, right up until Morstead began having one of the best rookie years ever by a punter. The last two first-round picks, Sedrick Ellis and Malcolm Jenkins, were made based solely on need. Loomis had his hands tied last year with only four draft picks, mainly because of the trades he made for Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma and two draft choices were injured before the season ever started. Loomis has a pretty full complement of picks this year and, although the Saints are the champions, they still have needs. Nothing major, but last year showed the importance of depth and Loomis will make sure the Saints add depth in their areas of need.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We’re talking about two different regimes here. Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris took over last year and Bruce Allen and Jon Gruden were calling the shots before that. These two regimes demonstrated two very different styles. Allen and Gruden were all about winning now and they did plenty of patchwork with veterans and didn’t have great drafts. Gaines Adams, the top pick in 2007, didn’t work out, but 2008 first-round choice Aqib Talib has shown promise. Allen and Gruden also left their successors with a bunch of young offensive linemen, although that group was a little disappointing. Dominik and Morris value the draft more highly than their predecessors and they’re proud of the fact they’ve accumulated 10 picks for this year. They believe in building through the draft and they started that process last year by getting Josh Freeman who they believe is a franchise quarterback. He’s in place and the challenge now is to build around him.

Atlanta Falcons

Potential unrestricted free agents: CB Brian Williams, WR Marty Booker, QB Chris Redman.

Potential restricted free agents: RB Jason Snelling, RB Jerious Norwood, P Michael Koenen, CB Brent Grimes, OL Quinn Ojinnaka, T Tyson Clabo, G Harvey Dahl.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: General manager Thomas Dimitroff repeatedly has used the phrase “fiscally responsible’’ when talking about the approach to free agency. In other words, the Falcons aren’t going to go on some wild spending spree. This organization prefers to build through the draft. But history has shown the Falcons aren’t afraid to make a strategic strike or two in free agency. They have a huge need at defensive end and that’s a tough spot to get guaranteed production from when you’ve got the No. 19 overall pick in the draft. The Falcons aren’t likely to target elite free-agent DE Julius Peppers, but you could see them make a move for another pass-rusher.

Carolina Panthers

Potential unrestricted free agents: DE Julius Peppers, WR Muhsin Muhammad, QB Josh McCown, QB A.J. Feeley.

Potential restricted free agents: LB Thomas Davis, QB Matt Moore, TE Jeff King, CB Richard Marshall, DT Louis Leonard, LB James Anderson, DT Tank Tyler, CB C.J. Wilson.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: Owner Jerry Richardson is very concerned about the uncertain labor situation and that may keep him from spending big money in free agency. The Panthers avoided a $20 million hit by not placing the franchise tag on Peppers, but that doesn’t mean all of that money is going to be used in free agency. The Panthers traditionally are a team that builds through the draft and they didn’t sign a single UFA last year. But look for at least a few smaller moves because coach John Fox has to win this year and needs to improve this roster, especially on the defensive line, at wide receiver and perhaps at quarterback.

New Orleans Saints

Potential unrestricted free agents: QB Mark Brunell, S Darren Sharper, TE Dan Campbell, TE Darnell Dinkins, DT Kendrick Clancy, LB Scott Fujita, S Pierson Prioleau, LS Jason Kyle.

Potential restricted free agents: G Jahri Evans, RB Mike Bell, RB Pierre Thomas, WR Lance Moore, TE David Thomas, T Jermon Bushrod, S Roman Harper, S Usama Young, DT Remi Ayodele, DT Anthony Hargrove, T Zach Strief, S Chris Reis, WR Courtney Roby, LB Marvin Mitchell.

Franchise player: None

What to expect: As a final-four team the Saints aren’t allowed to sign any unrestricted free agents unless they lose one of their own at a similar price tag. That’s likely to keep the Saints from being big players in free agency. But the good news is they don’t have a lot of dramatic needs. They will have to keep a protective eye on some of their restricted free agents, who may draw interest from other teams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Potential unrestricted free agents: WR Antonio Bryant, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, S Will Allen, LB Angelo Crowell, S Jermaine Phillips.

Potential restricted free agents: RB Cadillac Williams, LB Barrett Ruud, T Donald Penn, WR Maurice Stovall, T Jeremy Trueblood.

Franchise player: None.

What to expect: The Bucs haven’t spent a lot of money in free agency in recent years and they’ve been sending out signals this year won’t be much different. They’re focused on the 10 draft picks they hold. But the Bucs could pull a small surprise or two. They’ve got a restless fan base and more needs than those draft picks can handle. A couple of signings in free agency could energize the fan base and help the rebuilding process. The Bucs really need a No. 1 wide receiver and they’re not truly positioned to get that in the draft.

The Charlotte Observer has a statement from Julius Peppers in which the defensive end says his goal is to find the right match for his skill set.

At various times in the last year, Peppers and his agent have implied that he wasn’t able to reach his full potential with the Carolina Panthers. That’s no longer an issue because the Panthers announced earlier Tuesday they will not use the franchise tag on Peppers. That means he’ll become a free agent on March 5.

There is no denying Peppers’ skill set is fantastic. He could be a pass rusher in a 4-3 or 3-4 front and the Panthers even have used him on offense a few times throughout the years.

So what teams are likely to come after Peppers? There have been rumblings, mostly from fans with big dreams, about New England, Philadelphia, Dallas and even Oakland. I wouldn’t rule anything out because it only takes one team to make something happen.

But I’m thinking Peppers’ age (30) and the current labor situation might work against him a bit. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you can rule out any chance of him staying in the NFC South.

The Saints won’t be able to sign him because the rules currently in place eliminate the final four teams from signing unrestricted free agents unless they lose one of their own at a similar price tag. The Saints don’t have any free agents that will be in Peppers’ price range.

I know a lot of Atlanta fans are hoping the Falcons make a play for Peppers. But I don’t see that happening. Yes, they need a pass rusher. But the Falcons truly do believe in building through the draft. General manager Thomas Dimitroff has been using the phrase “fiscally responsible’’ every time he’s asked about how the Falcons will approach free agency. Peppers is a guy with lots of talent, but he’s never been consistently dominant. The Falcons know that. I think that’s part of the reason they’ll stay clear of him.

The Buccaneers? Come on. Tampa Bay isn’t exactly known for spending big on free agents and, despite the fact that Florida doesn’t have a state income tax, Peppers isn’t likely to be interested in the Bucs. He’s spent his entire career trying to duck the spotlight in Charlotte. Why would he go to a team like the Bucs where he’d stick out more than he ever did with the Panthers?

I got a nasty note from a Falcons fan this morning because I had the nerve to write that Julius Peppers might be a good fit for New Orleans and not Atlanta.

I’m not going to get nasty back, but let me just explain my logic.

First, on the New Orleans end, they could use a pass-rusher. They’ve got money to work with. They don’t have lots of needs in other areas and they’ve got a history of taking misfits and outcasts (see Jonathan Vilma and Jeremy Shockey) and getting production from them. The Saints also have a history of giving up draft picks in trades and that’s what it might take to get Peppers.

Now, on to Atlanta. If you know anything about the Falcons in current times, you know that Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff are committed to building through the draft. Sure, they take a shot here and there on a free agent or work a trade (see Tony Gonzalez). But they only do that when it’s a sure thing and Gonzalez was a sure thing. The guy has produced his entire career and there were absolutely no questions about him on or off the field.

The same isn’t true with Peppers. Sure, he’s an athletic freak and there’s no doubt the Falcons can use a pass-rusher. But Peppers has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. I’ve covered Peppers through most of his career. He’s not a bad guy, but even the Panthers never have been able to figure out where his head is or what motivates him.

The Falcons are very aware of that. After Peppers went missing through almost the entire 2007 season, I had a high-ranking Atlanta official tell me that there was always the perception that Peppers took plays off, but, after watching film of him that season, the conclusion was that Peppers actually was running away from plays. If this guy knew it, so did everyone in Atlanta’s building.

Still, Peppers has such rare athletic ability that some teams may be willing to overlook those issues. But that’s where you get into risk/reward and I think, from Atlanta’s perspective, the risk easily outweighs the reward.

First off, the Falcons have good chemistry. When you’ve got that, you run the risk of messing it up when you bring in an outsider and make him the highest-paid player in the locker room and that’s what the Falcons would have to do. Plus, Dimitroff used the words “fiscally responsible’’ several times when I interviewed him about free agency last week. Dimitroff doesn’t use words lightly.

Would it be fiscally responsible for a team that believes in building through the draft to give up some prime picks for Peppers? Would it be fiscally responsible to pay huge money to a guy who’s been inconsistent, who could disrupt your locker room, who might not handle the temptations of Atlanta very well at a time when owners aren’t even sure if there will be a season in 2011?

I think not. I’ll end it with this. Peppers just turned 30. Do you mortgage the whole franchise on a defensive end who is 30? Think about this. When defensive ends get old, it tends to happen almost overnight. Case in point: John Abraham, the guy Peppers ostensibly would be replacing in your dream scenario.

Abraham is 31.

Oh, just so we cover all our bases in the NFC South and don't offend anyone, let's explore the possibility of Peppers to Tampa Bay. Not going to happen. If the Bucs are as cheap as their fans think, there's no way they'd even consider paying Peppers. They're also committed to building through the draft. And what makes you think Peppers, who ran and hid when Carolina owner Jerry Richardson asked him to be a leader, would want to become the focal point of a rebuilding franchise?

If Peppers gets out of Carolina, the only place in the NFC South that makes any sense for him is New Orleans.

MIAMI -- Already, there’s an NFC South flavor to the Super Bowl and we’re not even talking about the New Orleans Saints yet.

One thing I’ve tried to do this week is give you a bit of a behind-the-scenes glimpse into how things work at the biggest show in sports. The Saints may be the only NFC South team playing in this game, but the other three franchises have people working the game.

Just a few minutes ago, I had the opportunity to run into Charlie Dayton, the dean of NFC South public relations directors, and several branches of his version of the Bill Walsh coaching tree. Dayton, who has been with the Carolina Panthers since before they played their first time, spent a little time catching up with me and Ted Crews, who, as best anyone can figure, is the only P.R. director to endure two 1-15 seasons.

Crews joined the St. Louis Rams as the main man last season after spending his career with the Panthers and Falcons. Crews said the Rams’ season wasn’t nearly as miserable as the 1-15 season the Panthers endured under George Seifert in 2001. In that season, there was no hope for Carolina fans and a coaching legend fell apart. At least the Rams are young and have room to grow.

Also in the media room is DeeDee Mills, who has worked for the Panthers since the start. She, Dayton and Crews will be helping the media throughout the day and night. The Atlanta Falcons also have Brian Cearns here and I’ve seen an intern from the Buccaneers helping out.

There’s another behind-the-scenes NFL connection to this game: That’s Carolina’s Brandon Beane, who basically handles all travel and logistical issues for the Panthers. Beane was brought in by the league to help out with logistics throughout the Pro Bowl and Super Bowl.

Some other NFC South dignitaries I've run into throughout the week include Tampa Bay Buccaneers co-chairman Bryan Glazer, current ESPN broadcaster and former Carolina and Tampa Bay receiver Keyshawn Johnson and current ESPN broadcaster and former Tampa Bay quarterback Trent Dilfer. Atlanta coach and Mike Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff also have been making the rounds.

MIAMI -- For the past year, and especially over the past few weeks, we have heard a lot about the past decade.

There have been all-decade teams named by numerous media outlets and one by the NFL. Those have been all-star teams patched together from across the league. And when people talk about the 2000s, they usually talk about the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts as being the best teams of the decade.

That is understandable because those teams have won a bunch of big games and were the closest things we’ve seen to modern dynasties. But instead of looking back on the past decade, let’s spin it ahead to the next.

“Hopefully, in a few years, people are talking about the New Orleans Saints as the team of the next decade,’’ New Orleans center Jonathan Goodwin said.

The Saints as the team of any decade? Yeah, their history isn’t that great and Sunday marks the first time this franchise has been in a Super Bowl. But give it a little thought and maybe Goodwin’s wish isn’t that far-fetched.

The team that used to have fans wearing bags over their heads and calling their team the “Aints’’ isn’t what it used to be. These Saints aren’t some kind of one-year wonder. They’re for real and what has been the season of a lifetime for fans all around the Gulf region might only be the start of something bigger. This team has the chance to be very good for a very long time.

“This team has that kind of potential, no question about it,’’ veteran linebacker Scott Fujita said. “This is our first year really on the big stage. We’ve got to take care of this one and then we’ll worry about next year.’’

Fujita and his teammates have to focus on one game right now. But we have the luxury of looking ahead and people around the league, particularly those who have to compete most often against the Saints, are worried about them perhaps being in the early stages of a dynasty.

Take the Atlanta Falcons, for instance. They’ve long been considered New Orleans’ biggest rival and that rivalry may be better than ever over the next few years. The Falcons have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history and, with Matt Ryan heading into his third year as the starting quarterback, the future appears very bright for the Falcons.

But everyone in Atlanta is well aware the Falcons probably will face a mighty obstacle in the NFC South over the next few years.

“The Saints have done a really good job in building that team,’’ Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff said. “In my opinion, this league is really all about personnel moves and the Saints have made some great personnel moves. Having a quarterback like Drew Brees is incredibly important. That’s the biggest thing of all. But they’ve got even more than that. They’ve got incredible athletes like Reggie Bush and Marques Colston and some of their defensive players. They’ve got all the parts in place to be good for a long time.’’

As Dimitroff said, simply having Brees makes the Saints a legitimate threat to win any game they play. His numbers compare well to those of Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning and New England’s Tom Brady. In 2006, his first season with the Saints, Brees took his team to the NFC Championship Game. Just about everything else that could go wrong did over the next two seasons, but Brees was still good enough to keep the Saints around .500 and in playoff contention. When the Saints gave him a little bit of defense and a running game in 2009, Brees led New Orleans to 13 straight victories to start the regular season and two very impressive playoff victories.

“With the way Drew works and takes care of his body, he could have another five or six years like this left in him,’’ Fujita said.

Five or six years of Brees pretty much guarantees the Saints won’t just crumble any time soon. But there are so many other parts in place that you have to believe the Saints aren’t going to take any big steps backward even if they have some major injuries.

Just look at the draft class of 2006, the first season coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis worked together.

It featured running back Bush, strong safety Roman Harper, guard Jahri Evans and receiver Colston. Evans already is being recognized as perhaps the best guard in the NFL and Colston, a seventh-round pick, is generally viewed as an elite receiver. Harper has blossomed into a very solid safety. Although Bush may never truly live up to the hype that came as a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall pick, he’s had moments of brilliance in his hybrid role as a running back/receiver/return man. That draft is shaping up to be perhaps the best in Saints history, and Payton and Loomis haven’t fared badly in the drafts that followed.

Players such as receiver Robert Meachem, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and guard Carl Nicks already have developed into core players, and defensive back Malcolm Jenkins, a first-round pick in 2009, soon could join them.

“We’ve got good players on the line and the skill positions,’’ Goodwin said. “I think it’s possible that we could stay at a very high level. I believe in this team and I believe in this organization. A lot of the guys are still pretty young and they’ll only get better.’’

The same thing might have been said after the 2006 Saints reached the NFC Championship Game, but they slipped the next two seasons, mainly because of injuries. There also is the history of the NFC South, in which no team has won the division in back-to-back years.

But the current Saints might be set up in a way that they’re poised to break that streak and stay on top for a long time.

“I think we’ve learned what it takes,’’ Goodwin said. “We got to the NFC Championship Game the first year, but I don’t know that we really realized what it took to get there. The last two seasons, it kind of slipped. Coach Payton reminded us about some of the things we did in ’06. In ’07 and ’08, we didn’t finish games well. That’s why we wanted to improve on finishing games this year. We lost a lot of close games and we felt like if we could eliminate mistakes, we could win those close games.’’

Consider all that part of the growth process. But also consider that the Saints were able to get this far this season with some pretty major injuries. They played all season without Pro Bowl left tackle Jammal Brown and survived a stretch when starting cornerbacks Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer were out with injuries.

“The ’06 year was something magical,’’ Evans said. “We took the NFL by storm. We had some injuries the next couple years, but here we are in the Super Bowl and now we’ve got to stay here. The injury stuff is something you can’t really control. We just couldn’t get a streak together. You’re going to have adversity like that and it’s really about how you respond to it. I think we’ve learned from that and learned to handle adversity better. If we can keep doing that, we can stay on top.’’

MIAMI -- I just touched base with Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff via telephone. We were hoping to meet face to face, but our schedules didn’t work out because he’s up visiting radio row at the media center in Fort Lauderdale and I’m down in Miami with the Saints.

But we talked about the Falcons' offseason for about 15 minutes. Atlanta has finished reviewing their season and are working on getting ready for free agency now and the draft down the road.

“We were happy that we were 9-7 and had back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history," Dimitroff said. “But we’re definitely not happy that we were not in the playoffs. We realize we have to eliminate some inconsistencies on offense and defense. We’ve got lots of work to do there. (Coach Mike Smith) has talked about being significant and relevant and that’s our goal to be in the playoffs so that we are significant and relevant every year.’’

Dimitroff isn’t about to reveal any top-secret plans for free agency, as he and Smith always believed in building primarily through the draft. But they have sprinkled in a few big-name free agents (see Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez) in each of their previous two offseasons.

“We’re always about continuing to get better at all positions so we will consider every way that might make our team better," Dimitroff said. “First and foremost, we’re going to be very fiscally responsible. That doesn’t mean we won’t be active. If we think a player in free agency can really ratchet us to another level, we’ll contemplate it. If we see a player that is a fit like Tony Gonzalez was, then I’ll go to (owner) Arthur Blank and tell him that we want to pursue this guy."

Dimitroff can’t comment on players on other teams before they become free agents and he’s not going to tip his hand about what positions the Falcons may be looking at. But based on last season, there already has been plenty of speculation that Atlanta may try to bolster the pass rush and the secondary.

There already has been speculation that Atlanta could be a possible landing spot for Carolina’s Julius Peppers, if he does indeed become a free agent. Don’t rule that out, but also remember Dimitroff’s words about being “fiscally responsible." Peppers is going to command a huge salary if he hits the open market and he’s not getting any younger.

Dimitroff did say the Falcons will continue to try to build mostly through the draft.

“What I can tell you is that the draft will continued to be need based for us," Dimitroff said. “And I can tell you it won’t be as lopsided as it was last year when we only took one offensive player or the year before when we kind of focused on offense."

Dimitroff also said that injured players Harry Douglas, Brian Williams, Peria Jerry and William Moore are all progressing well in rehabilitation.

“They’re all at various stages in their rehab, but everyone’s on target," Dimitroff said. “There are no concerns as far as any of them being ready for next season."

It started with talk of a Super Bowl and whispers about the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. It’s ending without even a playoff berth and more whispers, this time about a sophomore slump.

So what the heck happened to the Atlanta Falcons and Matt Ryan?

Nothing catastrophic, really. We -- I’m talking media and fans -- just got a little ahead of the game. Coach Mike Smith likes to talk about “the process’’ and it can sound boring as heck. But this season that looks like a step back really isn’t.

“You get what you earn in this league,’’ Smith said in a conference call with the Tampa Bay media on Wednesday. “Since we first got here, we’ve been talking about building a team that sustains as a contender for years.’’

The Falcons are 8-7 and out of the playoff picture one season after shocking everyone by going 11-5 and making the playoffs. But I’ll make the case that you can look ahead to next season and see the Falcons have a better chance of living up to those lofty expectations than they ever really did this season.

Here’s why:

1. We’ll see how it sorts out in the spring, but the schedule isn’t going to be nearly as brutal as it was this year. The rest of the NFL world isn’t going to be out to get the newfound media darlings because they no longer fit that description.

“It’s a big factor when everybody’s waiting for you,’’ wide receiver Roddy White said. “You don’t get them by surprise anymore.’’

No one took the Falcons lightly this year, and the NFL didn’t do them any favors with a schedule that included four games against teams coming off a bye week.

“We saw the schedule and knew what we had to face,’’ Smith said. “We’re not going to make excuses or complain because all you can do is prepare for the way the schedule is laid out.’’

2. The Falcons will be better prepared the next time around. Again, we all got caught up in the excitement of last year. When Smith and general manager Thomas Dimitroff came to town, they had a roster many thought was the worst in the NFL and were still picking up pieces of the earthquake left by Bobby Petrino and Michael Vick.

You can’t totally build your kind of roster in one year, and this season showed you can’t do it in two. In 2008, the Falcons focused on offense, drafting Ryan and tackle Sam Baker in the first round and spending most of their free-agent money on running back Michael Turner. Smith got through his first season without anything close to the kind of defensive talent he wanted.

That was supposed to change this year, but it sort of got postponed. Defensive tackle Peria Jerry and safety William Moore, the first two picks in the draft, went down with season-ending injuries before they could make an impact.

They’ll be back next season, and you can bet the Falcons are going to be looking for a pass-rusher and a cover corner early in the 2010 draft or in free agency. Even with a bunch of injuries and some horrific early struggles, this defense got better as the season went on.

Fact is, Smith and his staff can flat out coach defense. Imagine what they can do when they finally get some good parts to work with.

3. The core really is in place and it’s a good one. Yes, there’s plenty of tinkering to do on both sides of the ball. But the Falcons have Ryan and middle linebacker Curtis Lofton as the quarterbacks of their offense and defense, and that’s a great start.

Some people are trying to hang this disappointing season on Ryan, but that’s not even close to being accurate. Look at his stats. They’re pretty similar to last year and better in some ways.

“We put more on the quarterback this year,’’ Smith said. “He handled it very well. The learning curve at that position goes beyond one or two years.’’

I’d still take Ryan over any quarterback not named Manning, Brady or Brees because the guy is going to be good for a long time. If Ryan stumbled this year, it was more because of things around him than anything he did or did not do.

The biggest problem for the offense early on was that Turner wasn’t running as well as last year. Blame it on Turner or blame it on the offensive line. The Falcons have to decide if Turner was a one-year wonder and make an upgrade or two on the offensive line. If Turner still is their primary runner next year, it wouldn’t hurt to have a strong backup to pair with him.

4. No matter what the Falcons do about their running game, Smith and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey must tweak things. They might share a run-first philosophy and there’s nothing wrong with that. But when you have a talent such as Ryan surrounded by White and tight end Tony Gonzalez (and receiver Harry Douglas will be back from injury next year), you must play to your strength. I’m not saying the Falcons need to suddenly turn into the Saints on offense, but it’s time to turn Ryan loose more.

5. They have momentum on their side. Sunday’s game doesn’t mean a lot in the grand scheme of things. But it means a heck of a lot to Smith and the Falcons. A win would make them 9-7 and give them back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in the 44-season history of the franchise.

That would allow Smith and his team to bury another embarrassing piece of franchise history. Then, one year later than many expected, they could really take a leap.

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Two years ago, Buddy Nix and Marty Schottenheimer were shopping around for jobs together and appeared close to landing with the Atlanta Falcons.

With news the Buffalo Bills have promoted Nix from their scouting department to general manager, you have to wonder if this opens the door for Schottenheimer to be the Bills' next head coach.

On Nov. 24, Schottenheimer told the audience of "The Red Zone," his show on Sirius NFL Radio, that he wasn't interested in returning to the sidelines.

"From the coaching standpoint of it, you know, I'll be very candid with you and say it's nice to think that people would consider you," Schottenheimer said, "but the reality of it is is that after 30 great years, I'm really not going to go back down that road again."

Sure, and Bill Parcells was done coaching after the New York Jets. And Nick Saban wasn't a candidate for the Alabama job.

Could Nix's promotion sway Schottenheimer, who played linebacker for the Bills in the 1960s?

When the tandem was being considered for the Falcons, Chargers general manager A.J. Smith noted how close Nix and Schottenheimer were in San Diego.

"If true, I believe a Buddy Nix-Marty Schottenheimer team in Atlanta would be a perfect fit," Smith told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "Buddy got along well with Schottenheimer. They socialized together, went out to dinner, golfed together, sat together on the plane, talked football all the time."

The Falcons instead hired Thomas Dimitroff, from the New England Patriots front office, to be general manager and Mike Smith to be head coach.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Falling

1. Josh Freeman, Bucs quarterback: After showing some early promise, the rookie has struggled mightily in his last two games. Not all of it’s on Freeman because he’s got a bad team around him. But Freeman’s recent play is a big concern.

The Bucs have to do more to help him out. But they really can’t do much until the offseason, when they’ll get a chance to add new players (see more talent) around Freeman.

2. Carolina’s trade of a 2010 first-round pick: The Panthers traded their pick to San Francisco to move up in the second round this year to get defensive end Everette Brown. He’s got some potential, but hasn’t made a big impact.

Meanwhile, that pick seems to get bigger with every Carolina loss. It could end up being in the top 10, the place where you have a chance to get a franchise quarterback.

2. Steve Smith, Panthers receiver: Yes, Smith had a long touchdown catch Sunday. But it was one of only two catches for him.

Smith remains one of the most talented receivers in the league. But the Panthers are wasting that because of their problems at quarterback and because they’re not being creative in finding ways to get Smith the ball. He has 51 catches and five touchdowns. Those aren’t the kind of numbers that will get him to the Pro Bowl or, eventually, into the Hall of Fame.

Rising

1. Reggie Bush, Saints running back: He was back at full health and wasn’t on the field a lot. But when he was, Bush made his presence felt as he scored two touchdowns against the Falcons. Looks like coach Sean Payton has figured out how to use Bush: Don’t put him out there every play, but when you do, put him in spots where he has a chance to make a big play.

Bush is never going to be a guy who can grind out 25 carries a game, and his No. 2 overall draft status created some unreal expectations. But maybe it’s time for the world to accept Bush for what he is. That’s a guy who, at times, can be a difference-maker.

2. Jonathan Vilma, Saints linebacker: Vilma’s been solid ever since joining the Saints last year. But he probably had his best game Sunday, making a key interception and ending Atlanta’s last-gasp drive with a big tackle.

Vilma’s career flamed out with the Jets because he didn’t fit in a 3-4 defense. But Vilma’s found a home in New Orleans. He’s the leader of this defense and he’s showing, as he did in his early years in New York, that he can be one of the best linebackers in the league.

3. Mike Smith, Falcons coach: Without his two best players (quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner) and a whole bunch of others injured, Smith and the Falcons took the undefeated Saints right down to the wire. They did the same thing six weeks earlier in New Orleans when they were a little healthier.

This may be a lost season for the Falcons. But Smith has shown he knows how to coach against the Saints and the gap between these two franchises might not be as wide as it seems right now. Get everyone back to good health, let general manager Thomas Dimitroff find some cornerbacks in the offseason and Smith can make this team very competitive in the NFC South next season.

Think back to night of Nov. 2. The Atlanta Falcons went into the Superdome and pretty much played the New Orleans Saints evenly.

The Falcons ended up losing, but, everywhere you looked that night, there was reason to believe Atlanta could at least contend in the NFC South. Michael Turner ran wild, Roddy White had a big night, Matt Ryan looked like he did last year and even the defense made some plays.

Just build on that, hope the Saints could get knocked off once or twice and there were lots of indications that, when the teams met again in Atlanta in December, the Falcons could win and take the division race right down to the wire.

Well, it’s December now and the Saints come to the Georgia Dome on Sunday and both teams will be carrying flags. The undefeated Saints already have earned an NFC South banner. The Falcons have thrown up a white flag.

“We’re not in the NFC South anymore,’’ Atlanta coach Mike Smith said in a conference call with the New Orleans media. “We’re in the Wild-Card Division.’’

Yes, the Falcons have pulled out of a union that traditionally had all four teams on the map until late in the season. But this season’s dramatically different.

Tampa Bay really never was in the picture. Carolina was pretty much out after an 0-3 start and any hope the Panthers had after winning their next two games disappeared forever with that pathetic home loss to Buffalo.

So what’s happened to a division that fans were calling the “NFC Stout’’ at the start of the season?

Well, let’s first give the Saints a ton of credit for putting so much distance between themselves and everyone else. But let’s also remember the Saints finished last in the division last season. They got dramatically better.

But let’s not forget the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers did a pretty fine job of pulling themselves out of a division that now should be called the NFC New Orleans and Nothing Else.

Let’s take a look, team-by-team, at how it came to this:

FALCONS: The Falcons still were in it after that loss in New Orleans. They were 4-3 and they went to 5-3 a week later with a blowout win against Washington. Then, the Falcons self destructed. Ryan struggled and Turner got hurt. Then, Ryan got hurt, Turner got hurt and almost the entire offensive line got hurt. And the defense, which already was shaky at best, got really shaky.

“We haven’t made plays when they’ve been presented to us and you have to make those big plays and those game-changing plays in this league if you’re going to get the outcome you want,’’ Smith said.

The outcome the Falcons wanted for this year was to get back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history, make the playoffs again and maybe even win the NFC South championship.

None of that’s going to happen. The Falcons are 6-6 and mathematically still in the playoff hunt. But let’s be realistic. With that defense and with Ryan and Turner looking like they each will miss one more game, there’s no reason why the Saints should lose this one to the Falcons. If Ryan and Turner stay out longer than this game, there’s no reason to believe the Falcons win anything until they’re back and, even then, the defense is capable of keeping any opponent in the game.

I still like Atlanta’s nucleus, but I like it for next year when it’s healthy again and there’s been time to fix that defense. For right now, though, seeing backup quarterback Chris Redman starting is like watching the Falcons wave a surrender flag.

PANTHERS: Call it overconfidence, complacency or a comedy of errors. Whatever you want to call it the Panthers have gone from 12-4 to one of the league’s most disappointing teams, and that’s probably going to cost coach John Fox his job.

He has no one to blame but himself and possibly general manager Marty Hurney, although I think Hurney still could have a job when Fox is gone. Yeah, Hurney’s the one who does the deals, but Fox is the one who told him what deals he wanted done. And the decision to bring back Jake Delhomme, as well as sign him to a contract extension, ranks as one of the biggest gaffes of the past offseason. A lot of coaches would have handed Delhomme his release after his five-interception game against Arizona in last season’s playoffs and a couple of horrible games late last season.

At the very least, it might have been wise to bring in an alternative to Delhomme. As much as the Panthers were proud of the fact that they were returning 21 of 22 starters, the downside to that was they paid a fortune to offensive tackle Jordan Gross and moody defensive end Julius Peppers. That left them with no salary-cap room to sign any depth and it has cost them dearly when injuries happened, and when some of those 21 starters turned out to be less than the coaching staff thought.

Fox brought stability to this franchise, but he might have brought too much for too long. His message no longer carries the same weight in some corners of the locker room, and there’s a feeling among some players that rules aren’t the same for everybody and some guys get, or have demanded and received, star treatment. It might be the quarterback, it might be the coach or it might be both of them plus a whole bunch of others, but someone’s going to have to take the fall for this mess.

BUCCANEERS: Let’s be real honest here. The Bucs took themselves out of this year’s NFC South race in February. That’s when they cut ties with Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Ike Hilliard, Joey Galloway, Kevin Carter and several other older players who had just enough left to keep them close to making the playoffs last year. There was some logic in all that because the Bucs weren’t going to get any better if they kept the same crew around.

Instead, they got worse. Much of that was to be expected. But if this rebuilding plan had been carried out better, the Bucs would have been respectable early on and should be showing substantial progress by now. They’re not. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has brought some hope since taking over at midseason, but free-agent pickups Derrick Ward and Angelo Crowell haven’t brought anything to the table.

Coach Raheem Morris fired offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski before the season started and took the reins away from defensive coordinator Jim Bates after 10 games. Morris may get another year because ownership knew from the start this was going to be a project. But Morris and general manager Mark Dominik have a lot of work to do in the coming months.

So do Smith and Atlanta general manager Thomas Dimitroff. Same for Fox and Hurney, if they’re still there, or for a new regime.

Long story short and we’ll borrow from Smith’s first quote: The Falcons, Buccaneers and Panthers have a lot of ground to make up just to get back into the NFC South.

At a draft-day party in Raymond James Stadium, fans booed when the Bucs selected quarterback Josh Freeman. A day later, there weren’t any large gatherings as the draft wound down, but you still could hear some groans in the streets of New Orleans as the Saints traded up to get a punter.

Funny, but no one’s complaining now about the two most controversial draft picks in the NFC South. Four starts into his career, Freeman’s shown enough promise to bring hope to a franchise that spent the first half of the season without any. In New Orleans, Thomas Morstead has gone from being the punter nobody aside from Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton wanted to one of the best picks in the entire draft.

We’re only 11 games into the season and you never can fully judge a draft until two or three years out. But this year’s draft class is forming an early identity and it’s time for a look at the Class of 2009.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS. For all that’s gone wrong with the Bucs this year, it’s important to remember that one thing has gone right. Tampa Bay appears to have found the franchise quarterback it’s been looking for since Doug Williams left. Don’t undersell the importance of that. If Freeman really is that franchise quarterback, this rebuilding process is no longer so daunting.

Want some more hope for the Buccaneers? Consider these numbers. In Freeman’s four starts, he has thrown more touchdown passes (seven) than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez did in their first four starts. Freeman also has a 77.0 passer rating, which is significantly better than what the quartet just mentioned did in their first four starts.

He also is 1-3 as a starter, but easily could be 3-1 if the Bucs had just played a little bit of defense. Not bad for a kid who came out of Kansas State with questions about his ability to make decisions. It’s looking more and more like the Bucs made the right call in locking in on Freeman, who coach Raheem Morris knew from his one-year stint as an assistant at Kansas State, even if they telegraphed their intentions so strongly that they had to trade up a spot to No. 18 to make sure they got their quarterback.

The next step is to surround Freeman with talent. You can bet that’s going to be the focus of the 2010 draft as the Bucs quietly stockpiled 10 picks. But the Bucs already have landed a key piece for Freeman. That’s wide receiver Sammie Stroughter, who came in the seventh round. Stroughter had some personal issues in college, but the Bucs did their homework and thought he was worth a gamble late in the draft.

Stroughter has turned out better than anyone could have expected. He’s already a solid slot receiver, which is almost like a starter in the modern NFL. The Bucs also got another soon-to-be starter in the third round with defensive tackle Roy Miller. He’s played in a rotation with Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims this season, but it’s not much of a stretch to say Miller is the only member of that trio that will be around next year.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS. Pound for pound, the Saints probably have gotten the most out of their draft class so far. They only had four rookies to begin with and defensive back Chip Vaughn and Stanley Arnoux both went down with injuries in the preseason.

That leaves only Morstead and first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins, but that’s a pretty strong combination. Morstead, who also handles kickoffs, has helped solidify a kicking game that struggled last season. With Jenkins, the Saints had a rare luxury. They were able to bring the rookie along slowly because starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter were playing so well.

That allowed Jenkins to go through the learning process on the practice field and the sideline. Injuries have piled up the last couple of weeks and Jenkins has been pushed into a starting role. He’s shown he’s ready for it.

CAROLINA PANTHERS. Much like the Saints with Morstead and the Bucs with Freeman, the Panthers raised some eyebrows when they moved up in the second round (by trading away their 2010 first-round pick) to get defensive end Everette Brown. Unlike the moves by the Bucs and Saints, there remains room to question this one.

The Panthers drafted Brown at a time when there still was uncertainty about the future of defensive end Julius Peppers. But Peppers wound up staying as the franchise player and Brown hasn’t really been a contributor. He has 1.5 sacks and, no doubt, has plenty of potential.

But Brown is a project. At the moment, he’s undersized and nothing more than a situational pass rusher. But at least the Panthers are getting some production out of this draft.

They definitely hit on seventh-round pick Captain Munnerlyn, who’s been a contributor as a defensive back and on special teams. They also seem to have found a starter in safety Sherrod Martin, the second of their two second-round picks.

ATLANTA FALCONS. A year ago, everyone was talking about how general manager Thomas Dimitroff had put together such a brilliant draft class. That’s not happening this year because the Falcons have gotten very little from their rookie class.

It should be noted it’s a lot easier to get impact players when you’re drafting in the top five in every round instead of in the 20s. It’s also important to note that it wouldn’t be fair to label Dimitroff’s second class as anything close to a bust right now.

You could see right away the Falcons had a player in first-round pick Peria Jerry. But the defensive tackle went out for the season in Week Two. Pretty much the same story for second-round pick William Moore. Third-round pick Christopher Owens and fourth-round pick Lawrence Sidbury haven’t been big factors.

Maybe there’s a lesson in this draft for the Falcons. Maybe Atlanta fans shouldn’t expect every Dimitroff pick to be Matt Ryan or Curtis Lofton and produce huge and immediate results. Maybe they should look at this year’s draft class and remember the story of Thomas DeCoud. He’s probably the only member of the spectacular 2008 class that didn’t really produce as a rookie.

In his second season, DeCoud is starting at safety and playing well. Sometimes, it takes a little time.