Edwards: TCU needs help to get by Boise

November, 15, 2010
11/15/10
9:37
AM CT
ESPN.com's BCS guru Brad Edwards talked with ESPNDallas.com about the latest BCS rankings and what it means to TCU. The bottom line: Now that voters have put Boise State ahead of TCU with the Horned Frogs playing a one-win New Mexico team to end the season, TCU needs Boise to stumble if they have a chance of leaping back in front. Yes, TCU is still No. 3 in the BCS. But all indications are it won't stay that way for long unless Boise slips up (either a really close win that could change voters minds or a loss).

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Edwards said that besides TCU's close win at home to San Diego State, it was Utah's margin of defeat at Notre Dame that also hurt TCU in the minds of the voters. It was a Notre Dame team that had lost to Tulsa and Navy the previous weeks and beat Utah, 28-3.

"Every voter that had elevated TCU the previous week because they dominated what they thought was a top-10 team now came to the realization that Utah wasn’t even a top-25 team," Edwards said. "I think most voters question how good they are. Now you ask: What is TCU’s best win? It might be San Diego Sate by five points on their home field. That’s the issue that everybody has right now.

"They are looking at that resume and Baylor has lost its last two. The wins that TCU had been hanging onto, the ones that were giving them a boost in the comptures, everything is falling apart on them. Until this past week, it wasn’t TCU. For the first time since the SMU game, they looked sloppy. They weren’t dominant. We’ve been talking all year about how Boise State because they play in the WAC have pressure to be dominant. TCU has to be held to the same standard."

So is there any way TCU finishes in front of Boise State if the Broncos don't lose?

"Yes," Edwards said. "It may be a little far-fetched, but if Boise were to play a tight game against Utah State. If they win one of those games where they didn’t look like the better team, but they found a way to win. If that happens, maybe that could do it. Maybe Boise wins a 3-point game against Nevada and slop around against Utah State. I think the same thing that TCU got penalized for, Boise would if they failed to go out and dominate."

Edwards predicts that the computers won't help TCU by the end of the season and that essentially the teams would be tied in the computer rankings, which means where they are in the human polls would determine the BCS ranking. That No. 3 spot sure if valuable. Auburn still has to play at Alabama, where the Crimson Tide are likely to be favored, and then beat a South Carolina team that nearly beat the Tigers in Jordan-Hare Stadium earlier in the season. So it's not difficult to imagine Auburn stumbling and a non-AQ getting a shot at the title. Right now, that team is going to be Boise State unless something big happens to change things.

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