We're walking through each Big 12 team and identifying its most irreplaceable talent. He's the guy they can least afford to lose, and the guy to whom an injury or departure would have the most effect.
Let's move on with Oklahoma.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: OL Gabe Ikard
Why Oklahoma can't afford to lose him: This was a tough pick, and I narrowed it down to three players: CB Aaron Colvin, LB Corey Nelson and Ikard. Oklahoma doesn't have any All-Americans on this roster in terms of pure talent, so it's tough to look at one player and say, "Man, if Oklahoma loses him, they're a completely different team." There's just not a guy like that on Oklahoma's roster.
Still, I point to Ikard because he's held down Oklahoma's offensive line together even as it was trimmed to a razor-thin unit. It was a unit basically reduced to five guys that couldn't afford to sit for exhaustion or injury at the end of 2012. He's the most talented player on the Sooners' offensive line and showed some versatility by moving over to center from left guard last year following Ben Habern's injury in preseason camp.
With a new quarterback, strong play up front on the offensive line is a must-have. That's going to make life easier on any quarterback, but the gap between an inexperienced quarterback with a good offensive line and a poor offensive line is enormous. That extra second or two in the pocket can be the difference between 10-15 percent of third-down conversions to keep the ball, move the chains and put points on the board. Ikard's the biggest key and most experienced member of the Sooners' line with 38 career starts entering the season. Oklahoma simply can't afford to lose him. It just might be the difference between an eight-win season and an 11-win season.
Let's move on with Oklahoma.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: OL Gabe Ikard
Why Oklahoma can't afford to lose him: This was a tough pick, and I narrowed it down to three players: CB Aaron Colvin, LB Corey Nelson and Ikard. Oklahoma doesn't have any All-Americans on this roster in terms of pure talent, so it's tough to look at one player and say, "Man, if Oklahoma loses him, they're a completely different team." There's just not a guy like that on Oklahoma's roster.
Still, I point to Ikard because he's held down Oklahoma's offensive line together even as it was trimmed to a razor-thin unit. It was a unit basically reduced to five guys that couldn't afford to sit for exhaustion or injury at the end of 2012. He's the most talented player on the Sooners' offensive line and showed some versatility by moving over to center from left guard last year following Ben Habern's injury in preseason camp.
With a new quarterback, strong play up front on the offensive line is a must-have. That's going to make life easier on any quarterback, but the gap between an inexperienced quarterback with a good offensive line and a poor offensive line is enormous. That extra second or two in the pocket can be the difference between 10-15 percent of third-down conversions to keep the ball, move the chains and put points on the board. Ikard's the biggest key and most experienced member of the Sooners' line with 38 career starts entering the season. Oklahoma simply can't afford to lose him. It just might be the difference between an eight-win season and an 11-win season.
2014 Big 12 Recruiting Scorecard: May
May, 24, 2013
May 24
11:45
AM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
Recruiting is a year-round game, and it's time to take our monthly look at how this year's recruiting classes are progressing. Getting off to a quick start can get things rolling for any class. Here's how I'd rank the classes thus far. Click on each team to see the full class, though you'll need ESPN Insider to see it.
1. Texas
Total commits: 13
ESPN 150 commits: 2
Class notes: The Longhorns haven't earned a commitment since our last update. But offensive lineman Demetrius Knox decommitted late last month, and the Longhorns dropped to No. 2 overall in the latest rankings.
2. Oklahoma
Total commits: 8
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Sooners added four commitments since our last update, headlined by cornerback Marcus Green, a 6-foot-1, 176-pounder from Cedar Hill, Texas. Tight end Carson Meier, a Tulsa, Okla. native, committed on Wednesday. Center Alex Dalton joined the class last week and the Sooners went down to Mississippi to add cornerback Tito Windham. Oklahoma has four players ranked nationally at their position, moving ahead of Texas Tech, which has just three.
3. Texas Tech
Total commits: 11
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: The Red Raiders have added a few commits since our last update, headlined by a pair of receivers. Oklahoma City native Cameron Batson and Alabama native Tevin Madison give Tech's class six receivers in just an 11-man class. That's going to turn a few heads.
4. Baylor Bears
Total commits: 9
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Bears been been a big mover since our last update, ascending three spots in the Big 12 ranking after picking up five commits over the past month. They're having to hold off suitors for top commit ATH Davion Hall, but added a pair of nationally ranked linemen in OT Josh Pelzel (No. 31) and DE Xavier Jones (No. 32) since our last update. RB Terence Williams, WR Ishmael Zamora and OT Patrick Lawrence also committed since our last update.
5. Kansas State
Total commits: 7
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: The Wildcats have the nation's No. 3 center already in the class, but added a pair of Argyle, Texas, natives since our last update. Safety Connor Wilson and outside linebacker Sam Sizelove are both committed to head to Manhattan next fall.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Total commits: 5
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: There hasn't been any change in the Frogs' class since our last update, but they've already got two quarterbacks pledged to come to Fort Worth next season.
7. Oklahoma State
Total commits: 3
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Oklahoma State hasn't added any players since our last update, but all three members of the class are ranked in the top 25 nationally at their position, headlined by the Devon Thomas, the nation's No. 15 running back.
8. Kansas
Total commits: 2
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: Kansas grabbed a huge commit this month in Kyron Watson, the nation's No. 4 outside linebacker and No. 100 overall player. The East St. Louis, Ill., native would be KU's first ESPN 150 signee ever.
9. Iowa State
Total commits: 4
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Iowa State added three players to complement hyped receiver Allen Lazard in its 2014 class. A pair of Texas defenders -- S Victor Holmes and CB De'Monte Ruth -- joined the class, and the Cyclones went up to Wisconsin (A.J. Klein's home state) to grab another linebacker in Sam Seonbuchner.
10. West Virginia
Total commits: 2
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: West Virginia hasn't added a commit since our last update, but still has the nation's No. 12 dual-threat quarterback, William Crest, in the fold.
1. Texas
Total commits: 13
ESPN 150 commits: 2
Class notes: The Longhorns haven't earned a commitment since our last update. But offensive lineman Demetrius Knox decommitted late last month, and the Longhorns dropped to No. 2 overall in the latest rankings.
2. Oklahoma
Total commits: 8
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Sooners added four commitments since our last update, headlined by cornerback Marcus Green, a 6-foot-1, 176-pounder from Cedar Hill, Texas. Tight end Carson Meier, a Tulsa, Okla. native, committed on Wednesday. Center Alex Dalton joined the class last week and the Sooners went down to Mississippi to add cornerback Tito Windham. Oklahoma has four players ranked nationally at their position, moving ahead of Texas Tech, which has just three.
3. Texas Tech
Total commits: 11
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: The Red Raiders have added a few commits since our last update, headlined by a pair of receivers. Oklahoma City native Cameron Batson and Alabama native Tevin Madison give Tech's class six receivers in just an 11-man class. That's going to turn a few heads.
4. Baylor Bears
Total commits: 9
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: The Bears been been a big mover since our last update, ascending three spots in the Big 12 ranking after picking up five commits over the past month. They're having to hold off suitors for top commit ATH Davion Hall, but added a pair of nationally ranked linemen in OT Josh Pelzel (No. 31) and DE Xavier Jones (No. 32) since our last update. RB Terence Williams, WR Ishmael Zamora and OT Patrick Lawrence also committed since our last update.
5. Kansas State
Total commits: 7
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: The Wildcats have the nation's No. 3 center already in the class, but added a pair of Argyle, Texas, natives since our last update. Safety Connor Wilson and outside linebacker Sam Sizelove are both committed to head to Manhattan next fall.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Total commits: 5
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: There hasn't been any change in the Frogs' class since our last update, but they've already got two quarterbacks pledged to come to Fort Worth next season.
7. Oklahoma State
Total commits: 3
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Oklahoma State hasn't added any players since our last update, but all three members of the class are ranked in the top 25 nationally at their position, headlined by the Devon Thomas, the nation's No. 15 running back.
8. Kansas
Total commits: 2
ESPN 150 commits: 1
Class notes: Kansas grabbed a huge commit this month in Kyron Watson, the nation's No. 4 outside linebacker and No. 100 overall player. The East St. Louis, Ill., native would be KU's first ESPN 150 signee ever.
9. Iowa State
Total commits: 4
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: Iowa State added three players to complement hyped receiver Allen Lazard in its 2014 class. A pair of Texas defenders -- S Victor Holmes and CB De'Monte Ruth -- joined the class, and the Cyclones went up to Wisconsin (A.J. Klein's home state) to grab another linebacker in Sam Seonbuchner.
10. West Virginia
Total commits: 2
ESPN 150 commits: 0
Class notes: West Virginia hasn't added a commit since our last update, but still has the nation's No. 12 dual-threat quarterback, William Crest, in the fold.
A closer look at QB experience in the Big 12
May, 24, 2013
May 24
10:28
AM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
Last season, the Big 12 had just one starting quarterback (Oklahoma State's Wes Lunt) begin the year without a career start. It could look much, much different this time around. Experience at the position is always helpful, and here's a look at who's got how much across the Big 12 among players who could be Week 1 starters:
1. David Ash, Texas (18 starts): Ash has gotten better and better as his career has progressed and he threw almost twice as many passes in 2012 as a full-time starter as he did in 2011. The result: A jump from four to 19 touchdown passes and the same number of interceptions. He also completed 11 percent more of his passes (67 percent). But he also has to eliminate games like he had in 2012, when he completed 50 percent or less in three starts.
2. Casey Pachall, TCU (17 starts): Pachall was leading the nation in passing efficiency before an October drunk driving arrest led to him leave the program to seek treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. His decision-making on the field is his biggest asset. He has 36 career touchdown passes to just eight interceptions.
3. Jake Heaps, Kansas (16 starts): All 16 of Heaps' starts came at BYU, but he lost his job after some sophomore struggles in the wake of a breakout freshman season. He threw for almost 3,800 yards and completed 57 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in almost two seasons in Provo.
4. Trevone Boykin, TCU (nine starts): Boykin's got a ton of speed and a big arm and did better than most figured he would while filling in for Pachall last season. The rising sophomore completed just 57 percent of his passes but threw for at least 250 yards in four games.
5. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State (five starts): Chelf's upside is minimal, but he proved himself more than competent after sticking out the first half of the season as OSU's No. 3 quarterback. A year after being beaten out by a true freshman in the spring, he's OSU's presumed starter. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions after stepping in for an injured Wes Lunt against Kansas State.
6. Sam Richardson, Iowa State (three starts): Richardson was the third ISU quarterback to get a start last season and had a huge game in a blowout win over Kansas but completed less than 50 percent of his passes the rest of the season. It's his team for the time being, but I'm betting Paul Rhoads is prepared to hand the ball to Grant Rohach if Richardson strings together many more games like he had against West Virginia and Tulsa.
6. J.W. Walsh, Oklahoma State (three starts): Nearly knocked off Texas in his first start, but played well in blowout wins over Kansas and Iowa State. A leg injury cost him half of his season, but he's found a niche in the offense with a short yardage package and proved himself a capable starter.
8. Clint Trickett, West Virginia (two starts): Trickett appeared in 16 games at Florida State, nearly knocking off Oklahoma in 2011 in Tallahassee. He made just two starts at FSU, but threw for 336 yards in a close loss to Clemson in one of them.
9. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech (zero starts): Brewer got a little bit of playing time behind Seth Doege last season, completing 70 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions. It'll get tougher as a full-time starter if he officially wins the job ahead of Davis Webb this fall.
9. Blake Bell, Oklahoma (zero starts): You know him as the BellDozer, and he has more career rushing touchdowns (24) than pass attempts (20). He left the spring as the Sooners' almost sure heir to Landry Jones.
9. Daniel Sams/Jake Waters, Kansas State (zero starts): Waters is a junior college transfer who hasn't played a snap of major college football. Sams rushed for 235 yards and three touchdowns in mostly mop-up duty last season, but after Collin Klein suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State, he completed 6 of 8 passes for 55 yards.
9. Bryce Petty, Baylor (zero starts): Petty's never played a meaningful snap with the Bears and has just 14 career pass attempts. He's been in the program forever and has the physical skills to be great, but his career is starting on a fresh slate in 2013.
9. Paul Millard/Ford Childress, West Virginia (zero starts): Millard has served as Geno Smith's backup in mop-up duty, and threw 34 passes in the past two seasons. Childress redshirted last season and hasn't seen any playing time.
[+] Enlarge
Cal Sport Media/AP ImagesDavid Ash has the most starting experience of any Big 12 quarterback next season.
Cal Sport Media/AP ImagesDavid Ash has the most starting experience of any Big 12 quarterback next season.2. Casey Pachall, TCU (17 starts): Pachall was leading the nation in passing efficiency before an October drunk driving arrest led to him leave the program to seek treatment for drug and alcohol addiction. His decision-making on the field is his biggest asset. He has 36 career touchdown passes to just eight interceptions.
3. Jake Heaps, Kansas (16 starts): All 16 of Heaps' starts came at BYU, but he lost his job after some sophomore struggles in the wake of a breakout freshman season. He threw for almost 3,800 yards and completed 57 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in almost two seasons in Provo.
4. Trevone Boykin, TCU (nine starts): Boykin's got a ton of speed and a big arm and did better than most figured he would while filling in for Pachall last season. The rising sophomore completed just 57 percent of his passes but threw for at least 250 yards in four games.
5. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State (five starts): Chelf's upside is minimal, but he proved himself more than competent after sticking out the first half of the season as OSU's No. 3 quarterback. A year after being beaten out by a true freshman in the spring, he's OSU's presumed starter. He completed 60 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns and six interceptions after stepping in for an injured Wes Lunt against Kansas State.
6. Sam Richardson, Iowa State (three starts): Richardson was the third ISU quarterback to get a start last season and had a huge game in a blowout win over Kansas but completed less than 50 percent of his passes the rest of the season. It's his team for the time being, but I'm betting Paul Rhoads is prepared to hand the ball to Grant Rohach if Richardson strings together many more games like he had against West Virginia and Tulsa.
6. J.W. Walsh, Oklahoma State (three starts): Nearly knocked off Texas in his first start, but played well in blowout wins over Kansas and Iowa State. A leg injury cost him half of his season, but he's found a niche in the offense with a short yardage package and proved himself a capable starter.
8. Clint Trickett, West Virginia (two starts): Trickett appeared in 16 games at Florida State, nearly knocking off Oklahoma in 2011 in Tallahassee. He made just two starts at FSU, but threw for 336 yards in a close loss to Clemson in one of them.
9. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech (zero starts): Brewer got a little bit of playing time behind Seth Doege last season, completing 70 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and no interceptions. It'll get tougher as a full-time starter if he officially wins the job ahead of Davis Webb this fall.
9. Blake Bell, Oklahoma (zero starts): You know him as the BellDozer, and he has more career rushing touchdowns (24) than pass attempts (20). He left the spring as the Sooners' almost sure heir to Landry Jones.
9. Daniel Sams/Jake Waters, Kansas State (zero starts): Waters is a junior college transfer who hasn't played a snap of major college football. Sams rushed for 235 yards and three touchdowns in mostly mop-up duty last season, but after Collin Klein suffered a head injury against Oklahoma State, he completed 6 of 8 passes for 55 yards.
9. Bryce Petty, Baylor (zero starts): Petty's never played a meaningful snap with the Bears and has just 14 career pass attempts. He's been in the program forever and has the physical skills to be great, but his career is starting on a fresh slate in 2013.
9. Paul Millard/Ford Childress, West Virginia (zero starts): Millard has served as Geno Smith's backup in mop-up duty, and threw 34 passes in the past two seasons. Childress redshirted last season and hasn't seen any playing time.
SMU's Taylor Lasecki on Rimington watch list
May, 23, 2013
May 23
1:45
PM CT
By
Matt Fortuna | ESPNDallas.com
Watch list season means we're one step closer to the actual college football season. The latest watch list to be released is for the Rimington Trophy, which is given each year to the best center in the nation.
The Big East has four players on the 44-man list, which is led by nine SEC players and five each from the Pac-12 and the Mountain West Conference.
Houston's Bryce Redman, Rutgers' Betim Bujari, SMU's Taylor Lasecki, USF's Austin Reiter make up the Big East contingent.
The Rimington Trophy committee uses the AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News and FWAA All-American teams to determine a winner. The winner will be honored Jan. 11, 2014 at the Rimington Trophy Presentation banquet at the Rocco Theater in Lincoln, Neb.
Former Louisville center Mario Benavides was one of six finalists for the award last season.
The Big East has four players on the 44-man list, which is led by nine SEC players and five each from the Pac-12 and the Mountain West Conference.
Houston's Bryce Redman, Rutgers' Betim Bujari, SMU's Taylor Lasecki, USF's Austin Reiter make up the Big East contingent.
The Rimington Trophy committee uses the AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News and FWAA All-American teams to determine a winner. The winner will be honored Jan. 11, 2014 at the Rimington Trophy Presentation banquet at the Rocco Theater in Lincoln, Neb.
Former Louisville center Mario Benavides was one of six finalists for the award last season.
The Big 12's 1,000-yard receivers in 2013
May, 23, 2013
May 23
1:00
PM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
The Big 12's receiver tradition has been unbelievable over the course of the past few years. The NFL draft drained much of it last season, and the result is one of the least heralded corps we've seen conference-wide in a while.
Still, this is the Big 12, and just like the quarterbacks, receivers will emerge. Six players in the Big 12 topped 1,000 yards last season, including two teams (West Virginia, Texas Tech) who had two each. Back in 2011, just four players did it.
Here's who I'm picking to do it in 2013:
1. Josh Stewart, WR, Oklahoma State: Stewart is the Big 12's leading returning receiver with 1,210 yards last season, and he did that with three different quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Barring injury, it's likely to just be Clint Chelf this season. Stewart still has a ways to prove himself as a truly elite receiver on par with some of the greats we've seen in the Big 12, but he's got a great shot to lead the Big 12 in 2013.
2. Eric Ward, WR, Texas Tech: Ward joined Stewart as the only other returning 1,000-yard receiver, and in a fast-paced offense under Kliff Kingsbury and a promising young quarterback in Michael Brewer, he's in position to to do it again. Ward's been really consistent throughout his career, and uses his body well with decent speed and good hands.
3. Tevin Reese, WR, Baylor: Reese has a case as the Big 12's fastest player, and has a lot of experience as a complementary piece of a high-powered offense. He's going to need to be a more integral piece of the Bears' offense this year, which should again be racking up points and yards by the bunches. His experience pushes him over the 1,000-yard mark.
4. Brandon Carter, WR, TCU: TCU didn't have a 1,000-yard receiver last year, but much of that was because of Trevone Boykin's struggles with accuracy. Casey Pachall is back, and he's likely to regain his status as the Frogs' starter. He makes prudent decisions, has a big arm and puts the ball where it needs to go. With no Josh Boyce or Skye Dawson on the roster, Carter's ready to be the featured receiver in the offense.
5. Mike Davis, WR, Texas: I went back and forth here. It seems like Jaxon Shipley was at his most productive when Case McCoy was under center, and David Ash's confidence and competence throwing the ball downfield was huge for Davis' numbers. Both players should be even better this year. Davis should lead the Horns in receiving as a senior with a big finish to a somewhat up-and-down career.
6. Jalen Saunders, WR, Oklahoma: Saunders is reliable and is a dark horse to lead the Big 12 in receiving. After becoming eligible in the middle of 2012, he was uncoverable at times for the Sooners. The Fresno State transfer had five games with at least seven catches last season, including 15 for 181 yards in a loss to Notre Dame. He finished the regular season with three consecutive 100-yard games.
Just missed: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech; Jay Lee, WR, Baylor; Jaxon Shipley, WR, Texas
Still, this is the Big 12, and just like the quarterbacks, receivers will emerge. Six players in the Big 12 topped 1,000 yards last season, including two teams (West Virginia, Texas Tech) who had two each. Back in 2011, just four players did it.
Here's who I'm picking to do it in 2013:
1. Josh Stewart, WR, Oklahoma State: Stewart is the Big 12's leading returning receiver with 1,210 yards last season, and he did that with three different quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Barring injury, it's likely to just be Clint Chelf this season. Stewart still has a ways to prove himself as a truly elite receiver on par with some of the greats we've seen in the Big 12, but he's got a great shot to lead the Big 12 in 2013.
2. Eric Ward, WR, Texas Tech: Ward joined Stewart as the only other returning 1,000-yard receiver, and in a fast-paced offense under Kliff Kingsbury and a promising young quarterback in Michael Brewer, he's in position to to do it again. Ward's been really consistent throughout his career, and uses his body well with decent speed and good hands.
3. Tevin Reese, WR, Baylor: Reese has a case as the Big 12's fastest player, and has a lot of experience as a complementary piece of a high-powered offense. He's going to need to be a more integral piece of the Bears' offense this year, which should again be racking up points and yards by the bunches. His experience pushes him over the 1,000-yard mark.
4. Brandon Carter, WR, TCU: TCU didn't have a 1,000-yard receiver last year, but much of that was because of Trevone Boykin's struggles with accuracy. Casey Pachall is back, and he's likely to regain his status as the Frogs' starter. He makes prudent decisions, has a big arm and puts the ball where it needs to go. With no Josh Boyce or Skye Dawson on the roster, Carter's ready to be the featured receiver in the offense.
5. Mike Davis, WR, Texas: I went back and forth here. It seems like Jaxon Shipley was at his most productive when Case McCoy was under center, and David Ash's confidence and competence throwing the ball downfield was huge for Davis' numbers. Both players should be even better this year. Davis should lead the Horns in receiving as a senior with a big finish to a somewhat up-and-down career.
6. Jalen Saunders, WR, Oklahoma: Saunders is reliable and is a dark horse to lead the Big 12 in receiving. After becoming eligible in the middle of 2012, he was uncoverable at times for the Sooners. The Fresno State transfer had five games with at least seven catches last season, including 15 for 181 yards in a loss to Notre Dame. He finished the regular season with three consecutive 100-yard games.
Just missed: Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech; Jay Lee, WR, Baylor; Jaxon Shipley, WR, Texas
Most indispensable player: Oklahoma State
May, 23, 2013
May 23
12:48
PM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
We're walking through each Big 12 team and identifying its most irreplaceable talent. He's the guy they can least afford to lose, and the guy to whom an injury or departure would have the most effect.
Let's move on with Oklahoma State.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: WR Josh Stewart
2012 stats: 101 catches for 1,210 yards and seven touchdowns. Rushed eight times for 120 yards and a touchdown. Returned two punts for 73 yards.
Why OSU can't afford to lose him: Truth be told, Oklahoma State's offense would still be OK if it lost Stewart, but that's a testament to the depth and balance of OSU's team more than anything. Still, Stewart is the only thing close to an elite receiver on OSU's roster. He still has a ways to go to prove himself as a guy on the Biletnikoff-contending level of some of the recent Big 12 greats, but did you realize he had more than three times as many catches as any player on OSU's roster, and more than twice as many receiving yards?
That's a ton of production. OSU's receiving corps is deep. Nine players had double-digit receptions and at least 150 receiving yards last season, and seven of those nine players return. Stewart is the guy defenses must focus on most, and he was obviously the most consistent target in the OSU passing game, which powered through a turbulent, injury-filled season in 2012.
There's no reason to believe Stewart won't be even better for the Cowboys as a junior in 2013, and in a pass-first offense in Stillwater, he'll have plenty of opportunities to surpass his strong production from his sophomore season in 2012. His production last season was way, way overshadowed because of guys like Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams and Stedman Bailey putting up crazy numbers in the Big 12.
Let's move on with Oklahoma State.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: WR Josh Stewart
2012 stats: 101 catches for 1,210 yards and seven touchdowns. Rushed eight times for 120 yards and a touchdown. Returned two punts for 73 yards.
Why OSU can't afford to lose him: Truth be told, Oklahoma State's offense would still be OK if it lost Stewart, but that's a testament to the depth and balance of OSU's team more than anything. Still, Stewart is the only thing close to an elite receiver on OSU's roster. He still has a ways to go to prove himself as a guy on the Biletnikoff-contending level of some of the recent Big 12 greats, but did you realize he had more than three times as many catches as any player on OSU's roster, and more than twice as many receiving yards?
That's a ton of production. OSU's receiving corps is deep. Nine players had double-digit receptions and at least 150 receiving yards last season, and seven of those nine players return. Stewart is the guy defenses must focus on most, and he was obviously the most consistent target in the OSU passing game, which powered through a turbulent, injury-filled season in 2012.
There's no reason to believe Stewart won't be even better for the Cowboys as a junior in 2013, and in a pass-first offense in Stillwater, he'll have plenty of opportunities to surpass his strong production from his sophomore season in 2012. His production last season was way, way overshadowed because of guys like Tavon Austin, Terrance Williams and Stedman Bailey putting up crazy numbers in the Big 12.
If the season started tomorrow, the title race in the Big 12 would be wide open with at least seven teams having a legitimate shot to claim the crown.
Kirk Herbstreit visits Johnny Manziel as he trains with QB specialist George Whitfield this offseason.
Accuracy of post-spring power rankings?
May, 22, 2013
May 22
4:00
PM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
If you pay attention to this blog, you've surely seen our Big 12 post-spring power rankings for 2013. But seven months later at the end of the Big 12's regular season, how accurate do they end up being? During the season, power rankings are more of an exercise in taking the temperature of every team in the league, but before the season, they're more of a prediction.
So how have we done on the blog in the past two seasons? How accurate are the predictions? Let's take a look back.
BAYLOR
IOWA STATE
KANSAS
KANSAS STATE
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA
OKLAHOMA STATE
TEXAS
TEXAS A&M
TCU
TEXAS TECH
WEST VIRGINIA
I thought West Virginia would handle the transition very well in Year 1 and hit some lean years as it adjusted to the Big 12 in the big picture. The latter is looking true for now, but that former prediction crashed and burned with a five-game losing streak last season.
So how have we done on the blog in the past two seasons? How accurate are the predictions? Let's take a look back.
BAYLOR
- 2011: Picked fifth in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for third in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked seventh in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked fifth in the Big 12.
Nice run for the Bears, who have slightly exceeded my expectations in each of the past two seasons.
IOWA STATE
- 2011: Picked ninth in the Big 12, finished at 6-7 and eighth in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked ninth in the Big 12, finished at 6-7 and ninth in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked ninth in the Big 12.
I hear a lot from Iowa State fans about how much I underrate the program, and I do rarely pick them to reach bowl games, but the program is still struggling to really climb the Big 12 standings ladder.
KANSAS
- 2011: Picked 10th in the Big 12, finished at 2-10 and 10th in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked 10th in the Big 12, finished at 1-11 and 10th in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked 10th in the Big 12.
None of those are difficult selections that required much thought. The talent gap between Kansas and the rest of the Big 12 has been large since the end of 2009.
KANSAS STATE
- 2011: Picked eighth in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and second in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked third in the Big 12, finished at 11-2 and tied for first in the Big 12, though it held the tiebreaker vs. Oklahoma.
- 2013: Picked sixth in the Big 12.
K-State fans can feel confident that their team can exceed my expectations once again, but I still get tired of hearing about how "the media" picked K-State sixth before last season. In my season predictions, I actually had K-State tied for second in the league, and wrote at length about how the media's preseason poll was absurd.
MISSOURI
- 2011: Picked fourth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and fifth in the Big 12.
OKLAHOMA
- 2011: Picked first in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for third.
- 2012: Picked first in the Big 12, finished at 10-3 and tied for first in the Big 12, though K-State held the tiebreaker for the league title.
- 2013: Picked fourth in the Big 12.
The Sooners were the national preseason No. 1 back in 2011, and that 10-win season was hardly satisfying, especially since it ended in the Insight Bowl. We'll see how they handle the lower expectations this time around.
OKLAHOMA STATE
- 2011: Picked second in the Big 12, finished at 12-1 and first in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked sixth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and tied for third in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked first in the Big 12.
I didn't remember picking OSU as low as I did last year, but the top half of the league was loaded. Really impressive run from the Pokes. Good luck outdoing my expectations in 2013, Cowboys.
TEXAS
- 2011: Picked seventh in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and tied for sixth in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked fifth in the Big 12, finished at 9-4 and tied for third in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked third in the Big 12.
Texas hasn't lived up to their standards for their own program lately, but if nothing else, I haven't been guilty of overrating the Horns.
TEXAS A&M
- 2011: Picked third in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and tied for sixth in the Big 12.
Brutal final season in the Big 12 for the Aggies, who led by double digits in 12 of their 13 games, but Mike Sherman's exit ushered in a pretty magical 2012 SEC debut. Kevin Sumlin inherited a program in really good shape.
TCU
- 2012: Picked fourth in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and tied for fifth in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked second in the Big 12.
Still crazy that TCU was able to hold it together last season without quarterback Casey Pachall and being forced to play so many young players. Seventy percent of the depth chart were sophomores or younger.
TEXAS TECH
- 2011: Picked sixth in the Big 12, finished at 5-7 and ninth in the Big 12.
- 2012: Picked eighth in the Big 12, finished at 8-5 and in a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked seventh in the Big 12.
Tech's been all over the map, but that 2011 season was a bit of an aberration for a program with a lot of talent and firepower. Tech's the most likely team to exceed my pick this season.
WEST VIRGINIA
- 2012: Picked second in the Big 12, finished at 7-6 and in a four-way tie for fifth in the Big 12.
- 2013: Picked eighth in the Big 12.
I thought West Virginia would handle the transition very well in Year 1 and hit some lean years as it adjusted to the Big 12 in the big picture. The latter is looking true for now, but that former prediction crashed and burned with a five-game losing streak last season.
The Big 12's 1,000-yard rushers in 2013
May, 22, 2013
May 22
4:00
PM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
We looked at the 3,000-yard passers on Tuesday, but what about the guys on the ground? The 1,000-yard mark is the benchmark for a good season running the ball, and the Big 12 had just three players reach it in 2012. Three more had at least 925 yards, but who's going to run for 1,000 yards next season?
Here's who I'm taking:
1. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor: He has physical skills no other back in the league can match, and big-time confidence to go with them. He basically rushed for 1,000 yards in little more than a month last year. I have no doubt he'll do it again. He carries a status into the season as the most dangerous player in the league with the ball in his hands. I'll be shocked if he doesn't top 1,000 yards easily, barring injury.
2. James Sims, Kansas: This will be out of necessity. Sims notched his first 1,000-yard season in 2012 and did so with zero help from the passing game. Everybody knew he'd be getting the ball at least 25 times a game, and they still couldn't stop him. Jake Heaps will add some more balance to help soften up the box, but Sims is still the most reliable player on KU's offense.
3. John Hubert, Kansas State: Hubert's been overshadowed by Collin Klein, and logging over 500 carries in the running game the past couple of seasons has limited what Hubert could do. Still, he's had more than 950 yards in each of the past two seasons. Daniel Sams or Jake Waters will still run the ball, but not as much as Klein did. Look for Hubert to benefit and play the role of bell cow for this offense.
4. Jeremy Smith, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has had a 1,000-yard rusher for six consecutive seasons, the longest streak in the Big 12 and one of the nation's longest. It's still a pass-first offense, but that streak's not ending under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Smith's role was marginalized last season behind Joseph Randle despite topping 600 yards back in 2011, but he's going to be the main guy ahead of Desmond Roland this year. He's experienced and a solid blocker, too. That'll keep him on the field a whole lot. He's also got deceptive speed for his size.
Just missed: Damien Williams, Oklahoma.
Note: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia will have plenty of rushing yards, but the carries will be split too many ways for one player to top 1,000 yards.
Here's who I'm taking:
[+] Enlarge
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsLache Seastrunk rushed for 831 yards in Baylor's last six games of last season.
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY SportsLache Seastrunk rushed for 831 yards in Baylor's last six games of last season.2. James Sims, Kansas: This will be out of necessity. Sims notched his first 1,000-yard season in 2012 and did so with zero help from the passing game. Everybody knew he'd be getting the ball at least 25 times a game, and they still couldn't stop him. Jake Heaps will add some more balance to help soften up the box, but Sims is still the most reliable player on KU's offense.
3. John Hubert, Kansas State: Hubert's been overshadowed by Collin Klein, and logging over 500 carries in the running game the past couple of seasons has limited what Hubert could do. Still, he's had more than 950 yards in each of the past two seasons. Daniel Sams or Jake Waters will still run the ball, but not as much as Klein did. Look for Hubert to benefit and play the role of bell cow for this offense.
4. Jeremy Smith, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has had a 1,000-yard rusher for six consecutive seasons, the longest streak in the Big 12 and one of the nation's longest. It's still a pass-first offense, but that streak's not ending under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Smith's role was marginalized last season behind Joseph Randle despite topping 600 yards back in 2011, but he's going to be the main guy ahead of Desmond Roland this year. He's experienced and a solid blocker, too. That'll keep him on the field a whole lot. He's also got deceptive speed for his size.
Just missed: Damien Williams, Oklahoma.
Note: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia will have plenty of rushing yards, but the carries will be split too many ways for one player to top 1,000 yards.
We're walking through each Big 12 team and identifying its most irreplaceable talent on the blog right now. He's the guy they can least afford to lose and the guy to whom an injury or departure would have the most effect.
Let's move on with Texas.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: QB David Ash
Texas is pretty close to being one of the most complete teams in the Big 12 on paper, but Ash holds a lot of that together. The Longhorns have legitimate Big 12 title aspirations, but it's not happening with Case McCoy at quarterback for the conference season. Ash is the Big 12's most experienced quarterback with 18 career starts, and though he's had consistency issues throughout those starts, he's shown the potential to be way, way above average. Critique Ash's shortcomings all you want, but he's definitely good enough to win a Big 12 title considering the team around him, and no other quarterback on Texas' roster can say that. Unless they've got a big lead in the standings late in the season, an injury to Ash means saying goodbye to the Longhorns' Big 12 title hopes. No other position has a player that integral to the team's overall success.
The Longhorns have some promising freshmen on the roster in Tyrone Swoopes and Jalen Overstreet, but no doubt about it: Texas' most indispensable player is Ash.
Let's move on with Texas.
More most indispensable players.
Most indispensable player: QB David Ash
Texas is pretty close to being one of the most complete teams in the Big 12 on paper, but Ash holds a lot of that together. The Longhorns have legitimate Big 12 title aspirations, but it's not happening with Case McCoy at quarterback for the conference season. Ash is the Big 12's most experienced quarterback with 18 career starts, and though he's had consistency issues throughout those starts, he's shown the potential to be way, way above average. Critique Ash's shortcomings all you want, but he's definitely good enough to win a Big 12 title considering the team around him, and no other quarterback on Texas' roster can say that. Unless they've got a big lead in the standings late in the season, an injury to Ash means saying goodbye to the Longhorns' Big 12 title hopes. No other position has a player that integral to the team's overall success.
The Longhorns have some promising freshmen on the roster in Tyrone Swoopes and Jalen Overstreet, but no doubt about it: Texas' most indispensable player is Ash.
The much anticipated Alabama-Texas A&M game on Sept. 14 at Kyle Field will be nationally televised by CBS and kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
It will be Alabama's first trip to College Station since 1988. The two teams played a classic game in Tuscaloosa last season with the Aggies holding on to win 29-24 over the then No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide. That game was played in November.
The two teams will be opening SEC play against each other next season. Alabama has a bye the second week of the season, while Texas A&M will be coming off a home game against Sam Houston State.
In other SEC schedule news, the Arkansas-LSU game will again be played on the Friday after Thanksgiving next season (Nov. 29) and will be televised nationally by CBS with a 2:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The teams played the Friday after Thanksgiving for 13 straight years from 1996 to 2008 before moving to Saturday in 2009 and 2010.
It will be Alabama's first trip to College Station since 1988. The two teams played a classic game in Tuscaloosa last season with the Aggies holding on to win 29-24 over the then No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide. That game was played in November.
The two teams will be opening SEC play against each other next season. Alabama has a bye the second week of the season, while Texas A&M will be coming off a home game against Sam Houston State.
In other SEC schedule news, the Arkansas-LSU game will again be played on the Friday after Thanksgiving next season (Nov. 29) and will be televised nationally by CBS with a 2:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The teams played the Friday after Thanksgiving for 13 straight years from 1996 to 2008 before moving to Saturday in 2009 and 2010.
As part of our 100 days until kickoff coverage this week, we're looking at each conference's biggest underachievements and overachievements in the BCS era. Here's what I say for the Big 12:
Overachievements
1. Frequent title visits. There's plenty of talk about the SEC when you talk BCS, but the Big 12 has made an astounding seven trips to the BCS title game. No league other than the SEC has more than three. The Big 12's consistently been in the mix for titles during the BCS era, cementing a status as one of college football's best leagues. The Big 12 is the only league other than the SEC with multiple national championships since the BCS began.
2. Don't hate 'em because they're beautiful. How about Kansas State? The Wildcats were so unlucky, they had a rule named after them back in 1998 when they were No. 3 in the BCS but snubbed by the rest of the BCS bowls. That's the greatest BCS injustice ever, but Kansas State made two later trips to the BCS with a pair of Big 12 titles in 2003 and 2012.
3. If you can't beat 'em, invite 'em. TCU was a huge overachiever, joining Boise State as the most accomplished programs outside the major conferences. The Frogs crashed the Rose Bowl with a huge win to cap an undefeated 2010 season, and West Virginia is the only team in the nation to go undefeated in the BCS with more than two trips. One of those wins was a blowout over Oklahoma. The Big 12's response in 2012? WVU was deemed worthy and given an invite to the league, moving up from the crumbling Big East.
4. The greatest ever? Vince disagrees. USC was riding high on a 34-game winning streak and with Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart leading the way, was being touted as one of the greatest teams ever. Texas' Vince Young brought a 19-game winning streak of his own into the game and the Longhorns knocked off the Trojans for the Big 12's second national title in one of the greatest games ever and one of the greatest individual performances ever by Young.
5. Want a QB? Texas is where it's at. A few have left the state lines (Howdy, Andrew Luck and Matt Stafford!), but Texas has earned a status as a quarterback hotbed, and the Big 12 has done a stellar job of mining much of the league's success on the backs of those quarterbacks. Who knew one state could be so dominant at one position? Some of the best Big 12 QBs ever have hailed from Texas: Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, Michael Bishop, Chase Daniel, Graham Harrell and Kliff Kingsbury all call the Lone Star State home.
Underachievements
1. Oh, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's made eight visits to the BCS, more than any team but Ohio State. However, one of the biggest (and only, really) knocks on Bob Stoops was his team's record in those games. He started out 2-0 with a national title, but hit a five-game skid between 2004 and 2009. The only reason it broke was because the Sooners got lucky and drew an overmatched, eight-win UConn team in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.
2. Oh, so close. The Big 12 is stuck in the longest drought in school history. No team has played for the title in the past three seasons, but that's thanks to two monumental upsets. Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State went on the road in mid-November as heavy favorites and suffered losses to keep that rough streak going for the Big 12.
3. Yeah, about that title game record. The Big 12 has made seven trips to the BCS National Championship, but is just 2-5 in those games. Two of those losses were certifiable embarrassments: Miami rolled over Nebraska at the end of the 2001 season and USC routed Oklahoma at the end of the 2004 season. When the benchmark is set by the SEC (9-1 in BCS title games, with the only loss coming to an SEC team), it's hard to call a 2-5 mark anything but underachieving.
4. Making history isn't so much fun sometimes. Nobody gave Boise State a chance back in 2006 against Oklahoma and it was only the second team outside of an automatic qualifying conference to make a BCS appearance. The Big 12 champions, led by Adrian Peterson, got ambushed by a barrage of trick plays in the fourth quarter and in overtime and one of the greatest games in college football history featured the Sooners on the losing end. Fun, memorable game, but an embarrassing loss in a no-win situation for Oklahoma.
5. They should be better than this. Texas and Oklahoma were finally seeing their programs return to national power status when the BCS was born, but the Longhorns' recent slide has to be one of the biggest stories in the Big 12's history. Just when the money flowing into the program was growing exponentially, the Longhorns' on-field struggles began. The streak of nine consecutive 10-win seasons was amazing, but it's hard to remember those days in the shadow of just 22 wins in the three seasons since 2009. The five-win nightmare back in 2010 was the Longhorns' worst season since back in 1997 under John Mackovic.
Overachievements
[+] Enlarge
Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesTexas' Mack Brown and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops have each brought national titles to the Big 12 in the BCS era.
Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesTexas' Mack Brown and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops have each brought national titles to the Big 12 in the BCS era. 2. Don't hate 'em because they're beautiful. How about Kansas State? The Wildcats were so unlucky, they had a rule named after them back in 1998 when they were No. 3 in the BCS but snubbed by the rest of the BCS bowls. That's the greatest BCS injustice ever, but Kansas State made two later trips to the BCS with a pair of Big 12 titles in 2003 and 2012.
3. If you can't beat 'em, invite 'em. TCU was a huge overachiever, joining Boise State as the most accomplished programs outside the major conferences. The Frogs crashed the Rose Bowl with a huge win to cap an undefeated 2010 season, and West Virginia is the only team in the nation to go undefeated in the BCS with more than two trips. One of those wins was a blowout over Oklahoma. The Big 12's response in 2012? WVU was deemed worthy and given an invite to the league, moving up from the crumbling Big East.
4. The greatest ever? Vince disagrees. USC was riding high on a 34-game winning streak and with Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart leading the way, was being touted as one of the greatest teams ever. Texas' Vince Young brought a 19-game winning streak of his own into the game and the Longhorns knocked off the Trojans for the Big 12's second national title in one of the greatest games ever and one of the greatest individual performances ever by Young.
5. Want a QB? Texas is where it's at. A few have left the state lines (Howdy, Andrew Luck and Matt Stafford!), but Texas has earned a status as a quarterback hotbed, and the Big 12 has done a stellar job of mining much of the league's success on the backs of those quarterbacks. Who knew one state could be so dominant at one position? Some of the best Big 12 QBs ever have hailed from Texas: Vince Young, Robert Griffin III, Michael Bishop, Chase Daniel, Graham Harrell and Kliff Kingsbury all call the Lone Star State home.
Underachievements
1. Oh, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's made eight visits to the BCS, more than any team but Ohio State. However, one of the biggest (and only, really) knocks on Bob Stoops was his team's record in those games. He started out 2-0 with a national title, but hit a five-game skid between 2004 and 2009. The only reason it broke was because the Sooners got lucky and drew an overmatched, eight-win UConn team in the 2011 Fiesta Bowl.
2. Oh, so close. The Big 12 is stuck in the longest drought in school history. No team has played for the title in the past three seasons, but that's thanks to two monumental upsets. Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State went on the road in mid-November as heavy favorites and suffered losses to keep that rough streak going for the Big 12.
3. Yeah, about that title game record. The Big 12 has made seven trips to the BCS National Championship, but is just 2-5 in those games. Two of those losses were certifiable embarrassments: Miami rolled over Nebraska at the end of the 2001 season and USC routed Oklahoma at the end of the 2004 season. When the benchmark is set by the SEC (9-1 in BCS title games, with the only loss coming to an SEC team), it's hard to call a 2-5 mark anything but underachieving.
4. Making history isn't so much fun sometimes. Nobody gave Boise State a chance back in 2006 against Oklahoma and it was only the second team outside of an automatic qualifying conference to make a BCS appearance. The Big 12 champions, led by Adrian Peterson, got ambushed by a barrage of trick plays in the fourth quarter and in overtime and one of the greatest games in college football history featured the Sooners on the losing end. Fun, memorable game, but an embarrassing loss in a no-win situation for Oklahoma.
5. They should be better than this. Texas and Oklahoma were finally seeing their programs return to national power status when the BCS was born, but the Longhorns' recent slide has to be one of the biggest stories in the Big 12's history. Just when the money flowing into the program was growing exponentially, the Longhorns' on-field struggles began. The streak of nine consecutive 10-win seasons was amazing, but it's hard to remember those days in the shadow of just 22 wins in the three seasons since 2009. The five-win nightmare back in 2010 was the Longhorns' worst season since back in 1997 under John Mackovic.
The Big 12's 3,000-yard passers in 2013
May, 21, 2013
May 21
2:30
PM CT
By
David Ubben | ESPNDallas.com
It's time to look forward to 2013 and the Big 12's best passers. Hitting 3,000 yards is the benchmark for a productive season as a college quarterback.
Four Big 12 quarterbacks threw for at least 3,000 yards last season -- but all four threw for more than 4,000 yards. Two more quarterbacks hit 2,500 yards.
Who will crack the mark in 2013? With so many jobs up in the air, it's going to be tough to predict, but here's who I'm buying as a 3,000-yard passer in 2013, in order of the likelihood they'll do it.
1. Bryce Petty, Baylor: Of all the new quarterbacks in the Big 12, Petty has the most experience in his current system and has the deepest receiving corps. BU's got solid running backs, but this is still a pass-first offense and Petty's got an arm capable of making any play necessary. This is a no-brainer.
2. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Call me a believer in coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive mind. We'll see about Texas Tech as a whole, but Brewer's got a diverse skill set and his ability to run will make it easier for him to throw. Defenses will have to watch for both. Add to that a high tempo and a very, very good and deep receiving corps, and Brewer should be able to crack 3,000 yards sometime in early November.
3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State didn't have a 1,600-yard passer last year, but that's what happens when the injury bug bites. OSU has had a 3,000-yard passer in three of the past four seasons before that, though, and cleared the mark easily in team passing yards in all three seasons under the Air Raid. Chelf's likely to hit 4,000 if he wins the job officially.
4. David Ash, Texas: Ash has never hit the 3,000-yard mark, but he's getting better and his receivers are, too. Texas wants to play faster, too, which means more snaps and more pass attempts for Ash, even with a great running back corps with a ton of depth. He was at 2,699 yards last year, but he's got a great shot to get over the top this year.
5. Casey Pachall, TCU: Back in 2011, Pachall was 79 yards short of his first 3,000-yard season. He was well on his way last year with almost 1,000 yards in his first four games (including a win over SMU in a downpour). This one may be close, but if Pachall recaptures the job and only looks like a shell of himself, the odds are still in his favor to crack 3K.
6. Blake Bell, Oklahoma: This one may be close. I'm giving Bell the benefit of the doubt here. Bell's not as refined a passer as Landry Jones, but he's better than he's looked thus far in his career. He'll be running more than Jones, but I'm betting Bell clears the 3,000-yard mark safely.
7. Clint Trickett, West Virginia: West Virginia's going to run the ball a lot more this season with a lot of depth and talent at the position, but it's hard to see whoever wins the QB job not hitting at least 3,000 yards. They won't be reaching Geno Smith's 4,200 yards, but if Trickett beats out Ford Childress and Paul Millard in the Big 12's most unpredictable QB competition, he's hitting 3,000 yards.
Four Big 12 quarterbacks threw for at least 3,000 yards last season -- but all four threw for more than 4,000 yards. Two more quarterbacks hit 2,500 yards.
Who will crack the mark in 2013? With so many jobs up in the air, it's going to be tough to predict, but here's who I'm buying as a 3,000-yard passer in 2013, in order of the likelihood they'll do it.
1. Bryce Petty, Baylor: Of all the new quarterbacks in the Big 12, Petty has the most experience in his current system and has the deepest receiving corps. BU's got solid running backs, but this is still a pass-first offense and Petty's got an arm capable of making any play necessary. This is a no-brainer.
2. Michael Brewer, Texas Tech: Call me a believer in coach Kliff Kingsbury as an offensive mind. We'll see about Texas Tech as a whole, but Brewer's got a diverse skill set and his ability to run will make it easier for him to throw. Defenses will have to watch for both. Add to that a high tempo and a very, very good and deep receiving corps, and Brewer should be able to crack 3,000 yards sometime in early November.
3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State didn't have a 1,600-yard passer last year, but that's what happens when the injury bug bites. OSU has had a 3,000-yard passer in three of the past four seasons before that, though, and cleared the mark easily in team passing yards in all three seasons under the Air Raid. Chelf's likely to hit 4,000 if he wins the job officially.
4. David Ash, Texas: Ash has never hit the 3,000-yard mark, but he's getting better and his receivers are, too. Texas wants to play faster, too, which means more snaps and more pass attempts for Ash, even with a great running back corps with a ton of depth. He was at 2,699 yards last year, but he's got a great shot to get over the top this year.
5. Casey Pachall, TCU: Back in 2011, Pachall was 79 yards short of his first 3,000-yard season. He was well on his way last year with almost 1,000 yards in his first four games (including a win over SMU in a downpour). This one may be close, but if Pachall recaptures the job and only looks like a shell of himself, the odds are still in his favor to crack 3K.
6. Blake Bell, Oklahoma: This one may be close. I'm giving Bell the benefit of the doubt here. Bell's not as refined a passer as Landry Jones, but he's better than he's looked thus far in his career. He'll be running more than Jones, but I'm betting Bell clears the 3,000-yard mark safely.
7. Clint Trickett, West Virginia: West Virginia's going to run the ball a lot more this season with a lot of depth and talent at the position, but it's hard to see whoever wins the QB job not hitting at least 3,000 yards. They won't be reaching Geno Smith's 4,200 yards, but if Trickett beats out Ford Childress and Paul Millard in the Big 12's most unpredictable QB competition, he's hitting 3,000 yards.
The Aggies have plenty of playmakers on offense surrounding quarterback Johnny Manziel.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Richard Durrett
Richard Durrett joined ESPNDallas.com in September 2009. He writes about colleges, the Dallas Stars and the Texas Rangers. Richard spent nine years at The Dallas Morning News covering the Rangers, Stars, colleges, motorsports and high schools.
Tim MacMahon
Tim MacMahon joined ESPNDallas.com in September 2009. Tim covers the Cowboys and Mavericks. He has covered the local sports scene from high schools to colleges to pros during his six-year tenure at The Dallas Morning News. MacMahon is a graduate of UNT.
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