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After a year as a well paid No. 3, it looks like it’s time for Dan Orlovsky to prove he’s capable of stepping in for Matt Schaub.

Adam Schefter reports that last year’s Texans No. 2 quarterback, unrestricted free agent Rex Grossman, has reunited with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in Washington.

That means Orlovsky is the backup unless the Texans make a move. Chris Simms would seem a possibility if they wanted a third quarterback with some experience. But Orlovsky got three years at $8.5 million last year in a deal that had second- and third-tier quarterbacks around the country doing cartwheels.

It’s time for him to give the team the confidence he was worth it.

Schaub did well to stay healthy last year, and need to do so again. He probably has graduated to the ranks of irreplaceable.

Everyone wants their team to trade down.

I get more e-mails at this time of year asking me about the possibility of the Jaguars trading out of the No. 10 spot in the NFL draft in hopes of getting more. The same kinds of questions come from Titans fans hoping their team will opt out of selecting 16th overall. Texans fans (No. 20) and Colts followers (No. 31) aren’t averse to the idea of trading down, either.

So I am here to tell you, while trading up is often too expensive, trading down is often overrated.

For starters, to get down, you need a team that wants to move up.

“Sitting in the draft room for many years, I think those are conversations that always come up: 'Well, wouldn’t it be nice to move back and pick up a couple other picks?'" Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. “Well in that 10 minutes or whatever you have before that pick, if you’re not a hot commodity at that time and nobody wants to talk to you, you better be ready to do business.

“I think it’s probably a hell of a lot easier said than done.”

Said Jacksonville GM Gene Smith in a recent conference call with season-ticket holders: “My mindset is to acquire picks. If we’re able to do that, I’ll have a smile on my face.”

But even if you have a lot of needs, like Smith, is that the right route?

Let’s look at the recent trade-down history of our four teams and then assess. We’re considering just picks-for-picks trades, not moves that include veteran players.

In the last six years, with the help of Jason Vida of ESPN Stats & Information and prosportstransactions.com, here are first-round trade-downs in the division.



Houston

2008 -- Traded with Baltimore

Gave: No. 18 in first round (quarterback Joe Flacco)

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Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty ImagesThe Texans drafted Duane Brown after trading down in the first round of the 2008 draft.

Got: No. 26 pick in first round (offensive tackle Duane Brown), a third-round pick (86th overall, running back Steve Slaton) and a sixth-round pick (173rd overall, defensive back Dominique Barber)

Value chart says: Ravens, 900-883.2 points

Assessment: Baltimore got its quarterback and Flacco is clearly the most valuable player of all of these. The Texans got their left tackle (Brown), a skill player who’s had one great year and one terrible season (Slaton) and some shaky secondary depth (Barber).

2005 -- Traded with New Orleans

Gave: No. 13 in first round (offensive tackle Jammal Brown)

Got: No. 16 in first round (defensive tackle Travis Johnson) and a third-round pick in 2006 (66th overall, offensive tackle Eric Winston)

Value chart: Texans, 1,260-1,150. (That link is to an NFL-style draft value chart like the ones teams use to measure trade values.)

Assessment: Brown has been a Pro Bowler twice and an All-Pro once. Johnson underachieved and was traded. Winston is a very solid starter, but the Saints got more bang here, I think.

Indianapolis

Sidenote: The Colts gave up their 2008 first-rounder and their 2007 fourth-rounder to get the 2007 second-rounder from San Francisco they used to draft offensive tackle Tony Ugoh. That can be classified in different ways. I see it more as the Colts going up to get Ugoh, so I don’t use it as a trade-down scenario here.

2004 --Traded with Atlanta

Gave: No. 29 in the first round (wide receiver Michael Jenkins) and a third-round pick (90th overall, quarterback Matt Schaub)

Got: No. 38 in the second round (traded to Steelers for a second-round pick, 44th overall, Bob Sanders and fourth-round pick, 107th overall, linebacker Kendyll Pope), a third-round pick (69th overall, linebacker Gilbert Gardner), and a fourth-round pick (125th overall, cornerback Jason David)

Value chart says: Colts, 845-780

Assessment: A double-trade down netted the Colts Sanders. He may miss way too many games due to injuries, but he won a defensive player of the year award and keyed a Super Bowl team. But Schaub sure proved to have value for Atlanta when Houston came calling a couple years later.

Jacksonville

2007 -- Traded with Denver

Gave: No. 17 in first round (defensive end Jarvis Moss)

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Scott A. Miller/US PresswireThe Jaguars' Reggie Nelson had a disappointing sophomore season.

Got: No. 21 in first round (safety Reggie Nelson); a third-round pick (86th overall, traded to Baltimore for a fourth-round pick, 101st overall , a fifth-round pick, 166th overall, and a sixth-round pick 203rd overall); and a sixth-round pick (198th overall, traded to Atlanta as part of package for a fifth-rounder, 149th overall, guard Uche Nwaneri). Punter Adam Podlesh and defensive tackle Derek Landri came out of that trade with Baltimore, with the 203rd pick also going to Atlanta in the trade that got Jacksonville Nwaneri

Value chart says: Jaguars 973.2-950 (not factoring in trades of other picks involved)

Assessment: They did OK, but if Nelson continues on his current course, we'll remember them failing with another first-rounder.

Titans

2004 -- Traded with Houston

Gave: No. 27 in the first round (defensive end/outside linebacker Jason Babin) and a fifth-round pick (159th overall, traded to Jacksonville)

Got: No. 40 in the second round (tight end Ben Troupe), a third-round pick (71st overall, defensive tackle Randy Starks), a fourth-round pick (103rd overall, defensive end Bo Schobel), and a fifth-round pick (138th overall, guard Jacob Bell)

Value chart says: Titans, 860-708.8

Assessment: On draft day, it looked like a monster win for Tennessee and in time, because Babin busted, it still leaned their way. But for the Titans, only Bell was a consistent performer. It’s easy to look back on drafts and play what if, I know, but what if the Titans or the Texans had used No. 27 on Sanders or Karlos Dansby or Chris Snee?

Conclusions:

Let’s emphasize this is not scientific and it's not a very big sample size.

Still, these five deals produced just one player we’d rate as stellar, and Sanders has major injury issues. They also yielded AFC South teams a left tackle who still has to prove himself (Brown), a defensive tackle who busted (Johnson), a free safety whose second year was very poor (Nelson) and a tight end who’s out of the league (Troupe).

Trading down doesn’t always produce the yield everyone imagines. One very good player is better than a couple who rank a notch below. The chance at that player is typically better where you are, not lower than that.

So if the Jaguars see someone they like a lot at 10 or if the Titans see someone they like a lot at 16, they should jump, not dump.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Falling

Chris White, RG, Texans: White played eight games as the starting right tackle for Houston last season as the Texans tried to recover from the early loss of their two starting guards. The Texans gave up 25 sacks of Matt Schaub and had major trouble running the ball, and upgrading the interior line has been a priority. Thus the arrival of free-agent guard Wade Smith, who’s getting $3 million a year for four years in a new free-agent deal. One would expect that cash is intended to go into the pocket of a starter. However it sorts out, White will be moving down the depth chart.

Rising

Aaron Kampman, DE, Jaguars: After a tough year with Green Bay’s switch to a 3-4 and a blown-out knee, Kampman still qualified as an attractive pass-rusher. In Jacksonville, he landed with a team desperate for both sacks and defensive leadership. He’s got a prime chance to re-establish himself and make a real impact for a team that had major pass-rush deficiencies last year, and he was alluring enough that a fiscally conservative team dished out $11 million guaranteed to secure his services. He’s a guy who can have a ripple effect on effort and work ethic.

» NFC Recent History: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

» Draft Watch: Biggest needs (2/17) | Busts/gems (2/24) | Schemes, themes (3/3) | Recent history (3/10) | Needs revisited (3/17) | Under-the-radar needs (3/24) | History in that spot (3/31) | Draft approach (4/7) | Decision-makers (4/14) | Dream scenario/Plan B (4/21)

Each Wednesday leading up to the NFL draft (April 22-24), the ESPN.com blog network will take a division-by-division look at key aspects of the draft. Today’s topic: Recent history.

Houston Texans

The best move the Texans made in the past three seasons was trading a second-round pick in 2007 and 2008 to Atlanta for Matt Schaub, a quarterback who’s the key to their offense and team. With so many teams in need of a quality starter, that trade seems like a steal now. They’ve taken four defensive backs with the 10 picks they’ve made in the fifth round or later, and out of Brandon Harrison, Dominique Barber, Brice McCain and Troy Nolan they’ve not found a guy who has been able to contribute consistently. It’s time to spend a big pick on a free safety or corner who has great ball skills.

Indianapolis Colts

Skill positions get attention early, with receiver Anthony Gonzalez and running back Donald Brown grabbed with the two first-rounders in the past three years. The hits in the third round and later have become significant players: Clint Session, Pierre Garcon, Jerraud Powers, Austin Collie, Pat McAfee. Trouble spot? Look to the five offensive linemen who haven’t really panned out. That’s understandable with Steve Justice (sixth in 2008), Jamey Richard (seventh in 2008) and Jaimie Thomas (seventh in 2009), but Tony Ugoh (second in 2007) and Mike Pollak (second in 2008) have left the team with holes and problems that need to be addressed in April. Out of five picks there has to be at least one starter, probably two.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Two first-round picks out of Florida have not met expectations, but the Jaguars still hope safety Reggie Nelson and defensive end Derrick Harvey can become consistent players. Of 25 picks, only one is established as a playmaker on offense, Mike Sims-Walker (third-rounder in 2007). That’s a big part of the reason the team’s not especially potent on offense beyond Maurice Jones-Drew. The top four from the 2009 draft got significant starting experience as rookies, and the 2010 class will have similar opportunities. While Harvey can be steady, he’s not an explosive pass-rusher, and Quentin Groves has struggled. Even with Aaron Kampman signed, they still need another pass-rusher.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have fared nicely with pass-rushers from lesser-known schools -- William Hayes of Winston-Salem State is on the brink of big things and Jacob Ford of Central Arkansas is a skilled rusher. Contributions from second-rounders have been minimal -- Chris Henry is already gone, Jason Jones hasn’t stayed healthy or consistent and Sen'Derrick Marks had no impact as a rookie. After hitting a home run with seventh-rounder Cortland Finnegan in 2006, late-round corners Ryan Smith, Cary Williams and, so far, Jason McCourty, haven’t panned out. A quality corner is a need early in this draft.

Robert in Los Angeles writes: Hey PK, I typically enjoy your stuff and even when you say negative things about the Colts, I don’t have a problem with it. I mean it’s your job, you call it like you see it. However, there is one article you wrote about that irked me. Calling out Bill Polian and Jim Caldwell when not wanting to discuss what happened in Super Bowl 44. You say (paraphrasing here) "if past is prologue then you must talk about it." Well I’ll counter that with a phrase Tony Dungy coined during his tenure as head coach of the Colts: "The only way to erase disappointment is to move forward.”

Paul Kuharsky: I appreciate the note.

I think you miss my point on “past is prologue.” Polian uses that as his rationale for not talking about the past. Prologue means preface or introduction, so if the past is the introduction to the future, than how can you not use it to talk about what you are introducing? He needs a new crutch quote.

The Colts played 19 games. For 18 they talked about them after the game and then after watching film. There is a big difference between saying after the game “we botched the onside kick, they got us there, hats off to them” and saying after watching film of the game why and how they botched the onsides kick.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect that second conversation. What would you think if on a regular-season Monday, Caldwell took the podium and said “That game is in the past, I’m not going to field any questions on it.” Would be weird, no?

All I am saying is that after No. 19, they should do the same as they did after No. 1-18. I’m not eager to talk about the Super Bowl now – it’s ancient history. But if you hide Caldwell until a month after the game and he never has to answer for the questionable decisions he made in the Super Bowl simply because time has passed, is that fair to fans who are still tortured by the loss?

Do you get to not answer tough questions at work by using stall tactics?

Dungy is a reasonable man, and I’m sure he would say that while moving forward quickly is healthy, you also need to put the past to bed in order to do so. The Colts, in my eyes, could have done a far better job of that. I think even the most staunch fan of the organization who trusts in everything Polian does has to admit his PR year wasn’t good with the way he handled speaking of the unimportance of an undefeated season and the way he conducted himself at his season-ending press conference. At least he had one. It’s disappointing Caldwell did not.

Finally, in a real world context: If you had a bad day at work, how would it fly if you just told your coworkers and the people who were responsible for funding a big piece of your business, “Never mind that, let’s not look back, I’m moving forward? The only way to erase disappointment is to move forward.” We both know the answer to that one.

Chase from Chandler, Ariz., writes: Your disinterest and overall stature is annoying to the point I can't check your link. You should, A) Go get your "Dream job" at the New York Times if they have a desire for an individual with the equivalency of child’s writing skills, or B) Find a new field. I find it humorous that you're asked to do a chat every Thursday, yet your answers consist of nothing more than "NOOOOOOOOOOOO" or my favorite "why?” I thought as a blogger your objective is to give valuable insight that answers your reader's questions with thoroughness, why do you not understand that concept?

Paul Kuharsky: I love my job, I assure you.

In chats and mailbags, I can play to the lowest common denominator or the highest. I prefer the highest. It helps encourage a semi-sophisticated and more fun dialogue and it keeps my smartest, cleverest readers coming back. Without them you should see what things can devolve to.

When people ask me questions I don’t really get, “why” seems a completely appropriate response. And often they cannot answer it.

“The Colts should let their running backs and receivers throw more on trick plays?” Why? You don’t prefer why to “That’s an incredibly foolish thing to suggest as they have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time back there to throw." Is B better? “The Titans should switch to a 4-3.” After four or five times explaining how drastic a shift that is and how they do not have the personnel or philosophy to fit it, “Why?” becomes a good answer again.

I understand the concept and I hope if you read the blog for a day or a week you’ll find quite a bit of the valuable insight and thoroughness you seek.

And good questions produce blog posts, mailbag answers and chat responses. The more the better for me, honestly. Some of the bad ones have to be answered too. But many of my readers appreciate that we don’t spend a great deal of time on silly or nonsensical stuff and I don’t see that changing.

My personality is a major ingredient in the blog, and I’m not super patient. Sorry that’s not your preferred style or method.

Jacob in Pittsburgh writes: Hey Paul, I liked your analysis of where Tim Tebow might land, but I had one question. In the Texans portion, you stated that the strengths of the backup quarterback should match the strengths of the starter. But then in the Titans section you argued that they should get a traditional pocket passer to be the backup for Vince Young. Why wouldn't they want to acquire a backup that can perform all the bootlegs, options, and designed QB runs that they have for Young?

Paul Kuharsky: I contradicted myself there, didn’t I? Here’s why.

I’m a pocket passer guy. So if you’ve got a good pocket passer, like Matt Schaub, I’m all for his backup being in his image.

Vince Young is, at least, capable of being other worldly when it comes to being a running quarterback. The guy behind him, even if it was Tebow, isn’t going to match VY’s physical gifts. In the Titans’ case, I’d rather see them developing a young guy who is a more conventional drop back guy as an alternative to VY.

You’d like No. 2 to match the strengths of No. 1. But when No. 1’s strength is being unlike anyone else, it doesn’t really work.

Kevin Fitzpatrick in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., writes: Paul, if the Jaguars don’t re-sign Clint Ingram they are going to be extremely thin at linebacker. Also with them not being big spenders in free agency I’m not sure who is out there that would meet their price. From what I’ve read over the last week on jaguars.com it almost makes me believe they will select the linebacker from Alabama, Rolando McClain, but then if they do that we'll be short on the defensive line. I just don’t know how they are going to have any depth at linebacker or end this year. What would you suggest?

Paul Kuharsky: I appreciate your consistent readership and participation.

Ingram got his tender and I’d expect him to be back. They need depth at backer and even more at end. I’d like to see them re-sign Reggie Hayward, draft an end and find a guy with upside like they did with Atiyyah Ellison at tackle last year.

Jim in Memphis writes: I always enjoy the blog and check it regularly. Although Kyle Vanden Bosch says he doesn't feel snubbed by the Titans, do you believe him? Do you think this affects other free agents' view of the Titans? If so, how? I'd like to see Jeff Fisher take a page out of Jim Schwartz's book! Chances of that? About as much as Tiger doing an interview with Barbara Walters.

Paul Kuharsky: I believe him. He understands the ways of the league. It’s not a big loyalty business. The Titans should have communicated with him better, earlier.

But what good does it do them to come out and say “We think he’s not worth the money he’s expecting?”

Let him hit the market. If it’s dry, two months from now, if you’ve not filled the hole, maybe all a sudden there is a chance to reunite. There won’t be if you killed it by being brutally honest about him eight weeks earlier.

Here’s what will impact other free agents with regard to the Titans: How much money do they offer?

No, I don’t see Fisher scouting out a free agent at hit family home at 12:01.

Mike in Philadelphia writes: I am a huge Titans fan, but do you think there is any truth about us considering Kirk Morrison?

Paul Kuharsky: C’mon now. You have to differentiate speculation and discussion from reporting. I wrote a post about potential RFA fits and mentioned Morrision and the Titans. You can’t make the jump to them being interested until someone reports that they are.

Big score for the Texans: They’ve struck a long-term deal with No. 2 receiver Kevin Walter, an unrestricted free agent.


He looked to be a popular commodity on the first day of free agency. But one primary suitor, Baltimore, traded for Anquan Boldin and Houston was able to get a deal done.

Walter is a sold partner for Andre Johnson in the Texans’ offense and has shown in stretches a good ability to take advantage of the single coverage he’s assured of playing opposite one of the league’s very best.

In a season where Owen Daniels was out for half the games, Walter had 53 catches for 611 yards and two touchdowns in 2009. That was a drop from the two previous seasons when he caught at least 60 balls for at least 800 yards and had a total of 13 touchdowns.

I believe he’s still got upside and if the Texans iron out their running game to create more balance, he stands to push for 1,000 yards if things break correctly for him.

Matt Schaub's got to be very happy.

UPDATE, Saturday 9:25 am: Mark Berman talked to Walter Friday evening.

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow is working to refine his throwing motion. Will he play QB or some other position in the NFL? Let's assess his chances of landing in the AFC South.

Houston: Ideally you'd like a backup whose strength matches the starter's. That would be difficult with Tebow in Matt Schaub's offense. The team signed Dan Orlovsky to a pricey backup contract last year, then installed Rex Grossman as the No. 2 when he outplayed Orlovsky in camp. If they are especially active in free agency and whittle down their needs list, maybe they take a late flier on him. But with the crowd at quarterback, versatile Rice tight end James Casey selected in the fifth round last year and a reasonably long list of other priorities, Tebow does not seem like a fit.

Draft probability: Super low.

Indianapolis: A lot of analysts have used the Colts as an example of the sort of team Tebow needs to wind up with. In a stable, winning organization with no quarterback uncertainty, he would have the time to develop and find out whether he's a signal-caller or another niche. That's nice, but the Colts made the rare move of drafting a guy they hope to develop last year in Curtis Painter and then carried three quarterbacks until backup Jim Sorgi got hurt. Dallas Clark is one of the league's top-flight tight ends, and they already have great options out of the slot with Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez.

Draft probability: Low.

Jacksonville: The Jaguars drafted a quarterback with a slow wind-up at No. 7 overall in 2003 and Byron Leftwich has been gone a couple of years already. Tons of people automatically put Tebow in Jacksonville because he's a local guy who would be a huge story. But the Jaguars are not going to let their marketing people make their picks. They've swung and missed at a lot of Florida guys. They don't have a second-round pick because they traded it last year for a third-rounder (Derek Cox). They spent a sixth-rounder on quarterback-turned-tight end Zach Miller in 2009 and second-year GM Gene Smith needs another talented class that can contribute right away. All strikes against Tebow in my eyes. If he is to land in Jacksonville, it would have to be in the fourth round or later.

Draft probability: Low.

Tennessee: The Titans could well be in the market for a young backup to develop into an insurance policy behind Vince Young, but because they're dealing with a starter who's not a traditional pocket passer, I'd sure hope they'd think about a traditional pocket passer. If Tebow is to become some sort of H-back , perhaps he'd fit. But right now the Titans are expected to have Bo Scaife, Jared Cook and Craig Stevens around, with the possibility of Alge Crumpler too. The Titans have a lot of roster replenishing to do and lack a second-rounder from the trade that brought them Cook.

Draft probability: Low.

The read of the day: Football Outsiders Vince Verhei and Tom Gower look at the division.

It’s playoffs or bust for both David Garrard and Matt Schaub, says Clifton Brown.

Houston Texans

Don’t expect LaDainian Tomlinson in Houston, says John McClain.

Indianapolis Colts

John Oehser’s position-by-position analysis gets to offensive tackles.

Tony Dungy’s joined Facebook and Twitter.

Examining the credit Bill Polian gets with Deshawn Zombie.

It’s absolutely silly to me that anyone in Indiana is thinking this way. But brace yourself. Terence Moore found some who think Peyton Manning threw that pick on purpose.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Ernest Wilford’s one-year deal is worth the veteran minimum of $630,000, reports Michael C. Wright.

Montell Owens enjoyed his recent time at Harvard, says Ryan Robinson of Jaguars.com.

The draft has better tackles than guards or centers, says Vic Ketchman.

Modest free-agent additions can be big, as Zoltan Paksa shows by comparing Brian Russell and Bernard Pollard.

Tennessee Titans

Kevin Mawae is heading for free agency and Alge Crumpler hasn’t heard anything, says Terry McCormick.

Bo Sciafe’s scheduled for a big tender, says Jim Wyatt.

The champs have been crowned. Thirty-one other teams now head toward March 5 when free agency begins and the 2010 league year begins.

In the copycat NFL, everyone is already wondering how they match up to the New Orleans Saints.

Not everyone will toss their formulas and look to install the Saints' systems. But it makes sense to look at how the Saints got where they are and set off "Lombardi Gras."

And so here’s a look at the AFC South and how its teams stack up against New Orleans. (AFC South teams won't be playing the Saints during the 2010 regular season; they've drawn the NFC East for next season.)

Houston Texans

The Saints are built around quarterback Drew Brees and the Texans feel they’ve got a Super Bowl-caliber signal-caller of a similar ilk in Matt Schaub. Like Brees, Schaub is accurate and capable of posting some serious numbers -- he actually threw for 382 more yards than Brees did in the regular season. But Schaub had to throw more because he didn’t have a run game to match the one Brees worked with.

The Texans didn’t need to see the Saints' path to the title to know their run game is insufficient. Coach Gary Kubiak re-emphasized Wednesday that his team will be committed to the run. That means finding a guy who can take a good share of the carries and work in some sort of tandem with Steve Slaton is priority one on offense.

A defense that can make big plays can supplement that sort of offense. The Texans have defensive playmakers in Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Brian Cushing and Bernard Pollard. But they don’t have a guy like Darren Sharper, and free safety is clearly a spot Houston needs to improve to be championship-ready.

The big stat: The Saints averaged 39.4 yards per game and a full yard per carry more on the ground than the Texans in 2009.

Indianapolis Colts

We don’t need to say much here, as we just saw how the Colts measure up to the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. Their offensive line and special teams didn’t match up well. They’ve allowed special teams to be an issue for too long, and need to look to upgrade those units. They can win with a less-that-fantastic run game. But when the Colts need that vital rushing yard, the line needs to deliver the blocking more consistently.

The big stat: While New Orleans led the league in average total yards per game (403.8) and Indianapolis ranked ninth (363.1) in that stat, the Saints were far more balanced (sixth in rush yards a game, fourth in pass yards) than the Colts (32nd and second).

Jacksonville Jaguars

It wasn’t only the Saints. Three out of the NFL’s final four teams got there largely because an elite quarterback led them there. David Garrard doesn’t fit the bill. I’m one of any number of commentators or analysts who don’t believe he does, and his coach Jack Del Rio has said it as well. I expect the Jaguars will be looking to upgrade the spot in the draft.

Jacksonville is not going to be built in the Saints’ mold, as it looks to prove a defensive, run-oriented team can grind away and knock off teams like New Orleans. But to be that sort of team at a playoff level, the Jaguars need to find a way to beat division-rival Indianapolis with some regularity. That means winning without an elite quarterback against an elite quarterback.

While we can debate the way to throw Peyton Manning off his game -- blitz and look for ways to hurry him or complicate the coverages -- we know the Jaguars don’t yet have the personnel to do either well enough. The pass rush will be as big an offseason issue for the Jaguars as anything.

The big stat: No matter how much the Jags want to run the ball, they need to score more. New Orleans outscored Jacksonville by a 510-290 margin over the regular season. That’s nearly two touchdowns a game.

Tennessee Titans

Stylistically, the Titans are going to be more like the Jaguars than the Texans or Colts, though Chris Johnson gives them a dynamic player who can match anyone’s most explosive option on offense. They won’t build to try to mirror the Saints’ mold; they will build intending to be ready to shatter the Saints’ mold.

To do so, they’ll need to rush the passer better and play stickier coverage -- keys to beating elite quarterbacks. The Saints beat Eli Manning and Tom Brady and lost to Tony Romo in the regular season before knocking off Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning in the playoffs. Tennessee lost to Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, lost twice to Peyton Manning and split against Matt Schaub.

If Vince Young emerges as an elite quarterback, he’ll still be of a vastly different style than Brees. He had one receiver who averaged better than 13.7 yards a catch in 2009 while the Saints had three who were at 15.3 yards a catch or better.

The big stat: The 2009 Titans surrendered 31 passing touchdowns compared to the Saints’ 15.

Quality reads

The Pro Bowl needs to take the lame out of the game, says Mike Freeman.

The charade of the Pro Bowl is an NFL necessity, says Jason Cole.

Don Banks looks at the good, the bad and the ugly of the Pro Bowl.

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub continues to evolve, says Richard Justice,

Schaub and Mario Williams were the AFC’s best players in the Pro Bowl, says John McClain.

Super Bowl/ Indianapolis Colts

Excess reigns supreme at the Super Bowl, says Mike Tanier.

Alex Marvez breaks down what storylines are real at the Super Bowl.

Jimmy Johnson takes five questions on the Super Bowl.

Pete Prisco ranks the starters in the Super Bowl.

Dwight Freeney’s health is now the big Colts’ issue, says Mike Chappell.

Peter King polled some Pro Bowlers on how missing Freeney would impact the Super Bowl.

Snoring is less of an issue for the Colts this week, since guys who usually room together will be on their own, says Phil Richards.

Phillip B. Wilson’s matchup page.

Nancy Dunn’s been to all 234 Colts home games in Indy, says Will Higgins.

Antoine Bethea’s study habits allow him to play fast, says Richards.

Five myths about the Colts heading into Super Bowl week, from John Oehser.

The Colts won’t be complaining about their representation on the All-Decade team, says Oehser.

The Colts actually remain a work in progress, says Tom James.

Deshawn Zombie thinks the Colts without Freeney will have a hard time beating the Saints.

If absent, the Freeney story will be overblown, says Justin A. Cohn.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Don’t use the Pro Bowl as any kind of measuring stick for David Garrard because he faced no rush, says Vic Ketchman.

Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson made his touches count and scored the game-winning touchdown in the Pro Bowl, writes Jim Wyatt.

Kevin Mawae finished a comeback season as a Pro Bowl captain, says Jim Wyatt.

For the Titans to win a Super Bowl, Jeff Fisher has to go, says Vince Troia.

Pro Bowl Watch: AFC » East | West | North | South  NFC » East | West | North | South

In previous seasons, Matt Schaub's misfortunes have been related to cheap hits and injuries no one would have played through.

This season he encountered a different kind. First, the Texans' inability to get the last AFC playoff slot, when it was in range.

Second, to produce a career season that coincided with Peyton Manning's fourth MVP year and Chris Johnson's 2,000-yard season.

When you throw for a league-high 4,770 yards and don't get considered for offensive player of the year because of what players in your own division have done, that's a little tough.

It was the sixth-best passing yardage season in league history. Remember when Daunte Culpepper went crazy in 2004? He was a giant story. Schaub's year was better than that, and also topped Dan Marino's second-best year.

I believe Schaub has now established himself as a player who deserves mention at the back end of the top tier of NFL quarterbacks. He's not far off from Aaron Rodgers, who ranks as the top up-and-comer in many people's eyes.

With Manning in the Super Bowl, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger bowing out because of injury, Schaub's in line to start for the AFC in Sunday's Pro Bowl.

It's not the biggest spotlight he's going to earn before he's finishes in Houston.

Here a review of Schaub's season from Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.:

"Extremely successful. I was very torn as to who should have gotten the third quarterback spot in the Pro Bowl for the AFC between Roethlisberger, Brady and Schaub. He stayed healthy, which is gigantic for him. He was consistently productive, even after Owen Daniels went down, which should have crippled that passing game much more than it really did. After that injury, remember, they had no running game and really only one true receiving weapon in Andre Johnson. While QBs get too much credit and too much blame for such things, I also think it was very impressive that the Texans made a late-season run and did finally get over .500. Would grade his season as an A-minus."

The Texans have completed a two-for-one replacement move, hiring Gregg Knapp as quarterbacks coach to go with new coordinator Rick Dennison after the departure of Kyle Shanahan.

It looks like a quality move to me.

Knapp’s worked as offensive coordinator with San Francisco, Atlanta, Oakland and Seattle.

He was with Matt Schaub during that stint with the Falcons, but had no coaching tree connection to Mike Shanahan’s Denver regime, which is where Gary Kubiak has turned so often.

I've heard Knapp is a good guy whose play calling often came under fire for being too conservative. That won't be an issue in Houston as Kubiak or Dennison will be sending in the plays.

Here's a bit more from Alan Burge.

The watering down of the Pro Bowl continues.

The AFC quarterback pool is now all AFC South: Matt Schaub and Vince Young were already in as alternates, and David Garrard is now in with Peyton Manning a non participant.

Garrard threw 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, was sacked 42 times and had an 83.5 passer rating. He appears to rank ninth among AFC quarterbacks in the voting. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer all bowed out or passed on an invite. It’s believed Joe Flacco also declined.

With Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis now unavailable, Tennessee’s Kyle Vanden Bosch was added to the AFC roster, too.

Manning was pretty funny Sunday evening when he was asked if he might go ahead and play in the Pro Bowl Sunday despite getting a pass since the Colts will be preparing for the Super Bowl. He turned the conversation to his tight end, first-time Pro Bowler Dallas Clark.

“Dallas is going to play,” Manning said to laughs. “He’s so excited to make the Pro Bowl and he thought he could use an extra game to work on some of his blocking techniques. They didn’t say you can’t play. He’s going to play but I’m not going to play this year.”

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub is a deserving Pro Bowler, says Jerome Solomon.

Indianapolis Colts

The spotlight falls on three big-time quarterbacks Sunday, writes Mike Chappell.

The Colts defense is gearing up to stop the run, says Phil Richards.

New York’s regular-season win was a gift, opines Bob Kravitz.

The Jets are upset about talk of their gift win in the first meeting against the Colts, says Phillip B. Wilson. I don’t remember anyone from the Colts saying much.

Peyton Manning is never going to beat anyone by himself, Lito Sheppard reminds Wilson.

The Jets are working the underdog angle, says Wilson.

If the Colts do make the Super Bowl, a pretty strong argument could be made that no team in NFL history ever has had an easier road to get there, says John Oehser. Very interesting stuff that people will surely use to unfairly discredit the Colts if they go on to win the AFC.

Oehser takes five questions and asks five.

Reggie Wayne is ready for Revis Island, says Tom James.

A reminder of who missed the regular-season game, from Chappell.

Tape shows the Jets couldn’t stop Manning. (Thanks to 18to88 for the link.)

A look back at the Colts’ last appearance in the AFC title game, from Jeremiah Johnson.

Austin Collie’s film-study habits have been noticed by the Colts, says Larry Hawley.

The teams played “out of type” last time and it could happen again, says Doug Farrar.

Of the remaining quarterbacks, Manning’s the easiest to trust and Mark Sanchez is on the other end of the list, says Clark Judge.

Jacksonville Jaguars

It looks like Joe Cullen is about to become a Jaguars assistant. Here’s my entry on it from Wednesday night, which includes a link to my news story. Me, me, me.

Michael C. Wright’s story about Cullen.

Jack Del Rio is deserving of the scrutiny, not the hate, says Gene Frenette.

No naming-rights deal is on the horizon for Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, says Vito Stellino.

Part two of Big Cat Country’s interview with Del Rio.

Why Gene Smith needs a first-round home run, from Zoltan Paksa.

Tennessee Titans

Vince Young is a Pro Bowler again, says Jim Wyatt. (More self-referencing. Here’s my take.)

Kevin Mawae was among the NFLPA reps lobbying Congress, says Terry McCormick.

Kenny Britt’s company is worth questioning, says Jim Wyatt.

Vince Young is going to his second Pro Bowl, Jim Wyatt reports. The Titans quarterback is replacing San Diego’s Philip Rivers.


It’s the second replacement among AFC quarterbacks Wednesday.

The original three quarterbacks were Peyton Manning, Rivers and Tom Brady.

Matt Schaub got a spot after a banged up Brady dropped out and Ben Roethlisberger passed because of a shoulder injury. Now Carson Palmer has also opted out because of an injury and Young replaces Rivers.

Young was very good, and sometime great, after taking over as Tennessee’s starter following an 0-6 record with Kerry Collins at quarterback.

But we’re now seven deep in the AFC Pro Bowl quarterback pool, and if the Colts win the AFC Championship and advance to the Super Bowl, it’ll be eight because Peyton Manning won’t play.

Eight of sixteen starters in the conference may be able to call themselves Pro Bowlers. Apologies, but that doesn’t feel like a big honor and it’s another reason why the Pro Bowl is broken.

Sign me up for a league where the half the people with my job qualify as all-stars.

Schaub should be excited, it’s a big moment for him. But he said the Pro Bowl is “the highest honor in my opinion you can get in this league.”

I feel very strongly that All-Pro is way bigger, as you can read here. There are 27 All-Pros and that list can’t grow. There are already 94 Pro Bowlers and that list will continue to grow, and that doesn’t count people like Roethlisberger and Palmer who passed.